Final countdown: 100 days to go; what will PM Modi say now?

Neither any crystal ball nor any horoscope of the country would be able to visualise what would happen in the next hundred days. Some astrologers think that studying Narendra Modi’s kundali may help. But even that may not help. Because, like everything else about Modi, even his date of birth is in dispute. Officially stated to be September 17, 1950, there is another date in some records which say he was born in 1949.

Since I don’t believe in all this, I will try to find some pattern in Narendra Modi’s style, both political and behavioural.

The other approach could be to look for clues in the plans, slogans and strategies of the ruling party. But that is also not going to lead us anywhere. Because, Narendra Modi does not necessarily follow the party or its Margadarshak Mandal.

For instance, the party manifesto had not mentioned anything about Demonetisation, popularly known as notebandi! The party never ever said during the 2014 election campaign that the government would implement the Goods and Services Act (GST), dubbed as “Gabbar Singh Tax” by Congress president Rahul Gandhi. The BJP had never demanded abolition of the Planning Commission which was announced by Modi in his first ever Independence Day speech.

This shows that Modi does not follow the party line. When did the BJP say, for instance, that it would virtually withdraw from the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)? In fact, in the earlier incarnation of the NDA, then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to say that Nehruvian foreign policy has served the country best so far and he would continue with it.

But Modi chose to break from the long-tested and tried foreign policy, and chose to ally with the United States of America. In the last four and a half years, India is seen as the American outpost in South Asia, notwithstanding the Indian Prime Minister hugging Russian or Chinese Prime Ministers or Presidents.

Then, we began our special relationship with Israel. The whole world condemned President Donald Trump’s unilateral decision of recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. But India kept quiet. With this kind of hobnobbing with the US and Israel, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Mossad (Israeli Intelligence Organisation) would have little work to do in India. Our government or agencies would carry out their designs.

So, instead of trying to look for clues of near-futuristic possibilities in the party manifesto, we can also study the designs of CIA or Mossad! But such intelligence agencies never operate in an open environment. The cloak and dagger style of such international outfits work by hiring locals for their nefarious, even murderous plans.

For instance, it has now been conclusively established that the murders of former President of Bangladesh Mujibur Rahman and his family as well as that of former President of Chile, Salvador Allende, were carried out under the direct supervision (read orders) of the CIA. Allende was killed in 1973, followed by Mujib’s killing in 1975. Then, Pakistan’s democratically elected Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was dethroned in 1977. He would eventually be hanged in 1979 by the military rulers. All these had the footprints of the CIA. Just five years after that, in 1984, former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was killed by her security guards. But neither the mystery of her assassination, nor the enigma of her son and former PM Rajiv Gandhi’s killing in a bomb attack in 1991, have been fully explained or explored.

Be that as it may. The point to note is there are too many loose cannons moving around in our country and too many advisors, in the garb of international experts, who are giving advice to Narendra Modi and our National Security Advisor (NSA). Whose advice would be followed is a matter of conjecture. But the conjectures themselves, as Sherlock Holmes would say, are based on past experiences!

Coming to what would happen in the next hundred days, therefore, will depend on many factors. It could be the megalomania of Narendra Modi, it could be the panic that has set in in the PMO as well as in the BJP after the shock defeat in the Hindi heartland states or it could be Amit Shah’s skulduggery! As stated above, it could also depend on what international agencies are plotting and what advice is being proffered to our policy makers!

One of the strategies - of further polarising the Hindu-Muslim relationship and create communal riots - has failed, though not completely. Amit Shah’s speeches regarding National Registration of Citizenship and publicly saying that “one by one”, “foreign nationals” would be thrown out was an ominous sign. Because the so-called “foreign nationals” are being determined by government agencies. That can create an explosive situation in the northeast and even Bengal. Once the fuse is lit, it can spread to the rest of the country.

The sudden hype of the Ram Mandir movement was another game planned. That too has failed so far, notwithstanding the vicious campaign by Yogi Adityanath during the Assembly elections. The idea was to polarise the voters but it did not succeed. However, there would be another round of the Mandir strategy on the eve of Lok Sabha elections.

The main worry of the Modi-Shah duo is how Uttar Pradesh is likely to vote. In 2014, they could win 73 seats (71+2). The current consensus public opinion estimate is that they would lose about 50 seats. If UP fails to give them the expected count, it is unlikely that the rest of the Hindi heartland would give them satisfactory numbers.

In the South, the self-styled Chanakya, Amit Shah, has no base in any state, except some presence in Karnataka. In the East, West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha and Jharkhand are proving to be totally unreliable. In light of the current mood in the country, Maharashtra, Goa and Gujarat may not prove to be as loyal as in 2014. So where would Modi-Shah gain to replenish the losses in UP and the north in general?

If communal polarisation fails, there could be devilish plans of war with Pakistan. That can be triggered by saying that terrorism in Kashmir has increased and strong action is needed. But the danger is any war can boomerang. Hitler’s war boomeranged on him and Germany. America’s war in Vietnam brought disaster to US polity and economy. So it is a costly and unpredictable exercise.

But another “non-violent” way could be to “mass-bribe” the voters: Borrow money from the RBI and deposit a couple of lakh of Rupees in Jan Dhan accounts; or declare special loans to farmers, small businessmen and traders (like the scheme of “one crore Rupees in 59 minutes” for small and medium industrial units).

Modi has already gone on a project announcing spree and has promised yet another round of massive job creation. Promises will come; hyped slogans will be given; unrealisable dreams will be peddled; fear of chaos if opposition rule comes will be cited; fake fears of rise in terrorism will be raised; the ghosts of corruption will be weaved into the campaign.

But, will all that work? People have started to see through the games that Narendra Modi plays. Indeed, now even MPs and MLAs of the BJP have begun to distrust him and Shah; and they have started distancing themselves from the duo, or rather the trio that also includes Ajit Doval!

So the only game remaining for them is tampering with the EVMs. Unfortunately, this EVM game has not been taken as seriously by the opposition as they should. But complacency on this front could be dangerous and costly.

(The writer is a Rajya Sabha MP from the Congress. Views expressed are personal)