Britain on the edge over Brexit     

The seeds of Britain’s current Brexit imbroglio lie in the immigration phobia which has a long history with Enoch Powell’s 1968 rivers of blood tirade as a definitive milestone. For nearly three decades after that blood-curdling prophecy, which Britain’s inherent tolerance proved wrong, the phobia was mainly directed at the ‘coloured’ immigrants from Asia, Africa and the West Indies. By about 2000, this phobia began casting its net over white immigrants from central and eastern Europe too.

The first wave of newcomers from European Union member countries like Poland and Romania began arriving in Britain during the term of former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair, who thought that only a few people would come over. But it proved to be more than a trickle. Rather, it turned into a small but steady flow. David Cameron, the Conservative Prime Minister who took over after the short-lived Labour government of Gordon Brown, also didn’t think that inflow from central or eastern Europe would be much of a problem.

All that was needed was to restrict immigration from the Commonwealth countries from over 2,00,000 a year to tens of thousands a year. Cameron and his team, including Theresa May, then home secretary, all were confident that immigration from European Union member countries would pose no problem. The economic and other benefits of continued EU membership would far outweigh any immigration problems.

Cameron and his followers, heavily supported by the industry and business lobby, were so confident of continued membership of the EU that he decided to hold a referendum on the issue in June 2016. He gambled and lost, and resigned, leaving the mess for others to deal with. Theresa May was double quick to see her chance. She abandoned her pro–Europe belief to become Prime Minister.

Brexit has become a very emotional, even volatile, issue and the nation remains divided. Even families are divided. For instance, prime ministerial hopeful Boris Johnson is a hard Brexiteer while his younger brother and father are Remainers. Mrs May herself was a Remainer but turned Leaver when she saw her chance to become the Prime Minister.

The Tories were, and still are, in majority in the House of Commons and May was elected Prime Minister by virtue of the ruling Tory Party’s majority in the Commons. The harder part of delivering the referendum result lay ahead. She thought of strengthening her authority with fresh general elections, hoping for a bigger majority for her and her party. The gamble failed and produced a hung Parliament, forcing her to seek the alliance of nine MPs of Northern Ireland’s Protestant Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

Incidentally, I was in Britain at the time and put a small 10-pound bet on a hung Parliament against the prevailing predictions of a bigger majority for Prime Minister May and her Tory party. Along with many others, I won, collecting 40 pounds for my guess.

Prime Minister May’s troubles now started in earnest. But with her true grit and determination, she worked out a deal with the European Union against formidable odds. Nicknamed the Brexit deal, it is an unparalleled addition to modern British lexicon. Officially though, it is known as the ‘Withdrawal’ agreement, if and when it comes into force.

But May’s Brexit deal has found its fiercest opposition from her own Tory Party ranks. Only last month, her hard-fought deal was rejected by 432 to 202 votes in the House of Commons, by a historic margin of 230 votes. But not wishing to call a general election and open the door for the opposition Labour party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, the Tories voted to back May the following week, asking her to come up with her Plan B or to go back to the EU for a revised deal. The Commons voted 317 to 301 in favour of replacing the ‘backstop’ - the insurance policy designed to avoid a hard border between the two parts of Ireland. But the backstop has become highly controversial as it would bind the UK into an EU-dictated customs union indefinitely, which many fear will be permanently.

Undeterred by European Council President Donald Tusk’s latest broadside against Brexiteers as deserving of “a special place in hell,” May is no quitter and is going to give her best shot to the project. Just days earlier, Tusk had made it clear: “The backstop is part of the withdrawal agreement, and the withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation.” French President Emmanuel Macron has also said the agreement is “not renegotiable”, while Irish Deputy Prime Minister Simon Coveney said the backstop arrangement remained “necessary” despite the British vote. But, May is not taking no for an answer..

With just about six weeks to go, the chances of a ‘no deal’ with all its resultant disruptions are fairly strong, as is the possibility of Brexit deadline being extended by a few months or even a year. The UK is set to leave the European Union on March 29 with a 20-month transition period if the deal goes through. But calls for a new referendum are also in the air. No bets in this last stretch.

(Subhash Chopra is the author of “Kipling Sahib–The Raj Patriot’ and ‘India and Britannia – An Abiding Affair’.)