BMC Polls: Battle of allies Sena and BJP keeps Maharashtra riveted

"The Bharatiya Janata Party is like an elephant gone out of control. It needs a strong mahout to keep it in check. The Shiv Sena is that mahout.’’ “You have undertaken notebandi, it is now time to have BJP-bandi as well.”

"The Shiv Sena has had untramelled control of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation for too long. It has got into the habit of treating Mumbai like its father’s property.’’

No, it’s not the Congress or the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra which are hurling these allegations at the two NDA allies. It’s state government partners Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray and BJP Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who are going hammer and tongs at each other. With just over a week to go to the final round of civic polls across the state, the bitterness between the two allies is intense and tempers are running high.

The BJP has promised the moon to Mumbai’s voters in its manifesto for the municipality polls, including transparency in governance. However, the impact of its implicit allegation against the Sena—the largest party in the BMC—has somewhat fizzled out after the Union government’s Economic Survey 2017 declared the BMC to be the most transparently governed city administration in India, along with Hyderabad.

Another reason why the BJP’s rhetoric is not finding resonance is because it has been governing the BMC in alliance with the Shiv Sena for the last two decades. The people, thus, believe it is an equal partner in crime and cannot hope to get away by pointing fingers at the Shiv Sena.

For the Sena, the BMC polls is a fight to the finish. The regional party fears that if it fails to win the BMC, this could prove to be its last electoral battle. The BMC polls, thus, are attracting as much interest as the assembly elections underway in five states. Retaining its control of Mumbai’s Mahanagarpalika (municipality), is more important to the Sena than that of Mantralaya (the state assembly), or even a presence in Parliament. During the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi had treated Uddhav Thackeray with disdain and his massive sweep in May 2014 was followed by a break-up of the long-standing Sena-BJP alliance just days before the assembly polls the same year. But to the BJP’s disappointment, it fell short of seats in the state government and had no choice but to ally once again with the Shiv Sena.

sena-bjp fight spilling over into gujarat

In the civic polls, however, the Shiv Sena could best the BJP again, as the latter faces the prospect of a loss of its core voter base—Gujaratis and traders—following Modi’s demonetisation decision. Even without the hardship of demonetisation, Gujaratis who voted en masse for Modi during both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections might have preferred the Sena in order to keep the peace at the local level. Out of power, the Sena is an uncaged tiger and goes on the rampage, which is detrimental to the interests of the trader community. However, Uddhav Thackeray’s furious opposition to demonetisation had acted as a balm to their wounds and this fact has not been lost on local BJP leaders.

The party had been particularly rattled by Patidar leader Hardik Patel’s joining forces with the Shiv Sena ahead of the polls. Uddhav has declared that Patel will be the face of his party in the Gujarat assembly election coming up later this year. The Sena intends to put up candidates across Gujarat and has finally found someone who could help it open its account in that state. But for the moment, the significance of the tie-up with Patel has not been lost on the considerable Gujarati population in Mumbai, eliciting abusive responses from many BJP functionaries who have described the Shiv Sena as Kauravas who must be destroyed before they run further amok.

In a fight between two Big Cats there is every possibility, according to legend, that the monkey runs away with the banana—or at least a substantial chunk of it.

congress rewrites it’s bmc campaign strategy

The Congress started as an underdog in the battle for the BMC, and continues to be short on funds. The party having virtually no resources to paint the town in its tricolour. The city is plastered with saffron hoardings and posters of the Sena and BJP, but there is not much to show for the Congress. However, the party seems to be making up on the roundabouts what it is losing on the swings.

In a rare departure from previous practice, Congress candidates for the 227 BMC seats were chosen carefully, not for loyalty or being heavy weights, but for their winnability factor. 'Winnability’ means candidates have been chosen on the basis of ability to gather their own resources and mount a campaign which makes their presence felt in Mumbai’s wards. The Congress campaign thus is the most low key, though besides city Congress president Sanjay Nirupam and state Congress chief Ashok Chavan, former Finance Minister P Chidambaram was in Mumbai on Sunday to canvas for the party, and Congress leader Nagma Morarji campaigned along with Nirupam on Saturday. The Congress, in any case, has only to better its last performance to claim a ‘victory’ of sorts in the BMC.

That the party might be doing better than expected can be gauged by the fact that Chavan was attacked with ink by Sena workers in Nagpur on Saturday, where he was campaigning for elections to the Nagpur Municipal Corporation, which is also going to polls on February 21. Uddhav Thackeray distanced the Sena from the ‘sin’ of the attack.

Being the underdog in the elections also means the Congress is racked with fewer problems than the BJP or the Shiv Sena. The latter have been tackling major embarrassments as there was a premium on their tickets and videos have emerged of various functionaries purportedly demanding money for tickets. Both parties have also been facing large scale rebellions, with some of the disappointed BJP and Sena candidates rushing towards Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, which has accommodated some of the defectors. But those who could not find a place even in the most unfavoured of the saffron parties have turned rebels.

The Congress does not face this problem of plenty this season, and is thus campaigning with considerably fewer headaches to deal with. It seems to be gaining on the Shiv Sena in some wards at least in Mumbai, where it wisely declined an alliance with the NCP which has hardly any presence in the city. There was also the fear that the NCP might prove to be a Trojan horse by helping the BJP rather than the Congress in winning these polls. So deeply has that impression gone down among voters that Supriya Sule, party MP and daughter of Sharad Pawar, who is the main campaigner for these polls, had to issue a public statement that they would never prop up the BJP, now or ever in case it falls short of support in the assembly.

murmurs around stability of the state government

So is there the possibility of the BJP falling short in the assembly, halfway through the state government’s term? Well, Uddhav Thackeray has hinted that the government might not complete its full term. But that is clearly just poll rhetoric. If the Sena wins, it will be in a strong position to dictate terms and it is unlikely to pass up the opportunity by bringing down the government. And if it loses, it will have little alternative but to tone down its roars and would then want to hang on to the government.

The Sena has raised the most eyebrows, though, with its praise for Congress and spirited defence of the latter in face of attacks by PM Modi. Party mouthpiece Saamana hailed the development work done by successive Congress governments at the Centre, saying Modi should stop attacking the party which “made India what it is today”, putting it “at the forefront of economic and industrial development”. Thackeray also took on PM Modi over his "raincoat" jibe at former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and lashed out at the PM’s warning to Congress to watch what they say about him as he has the details of Congress leaders from birth and would use these if provoked. "The PM must not forget this. Even we have his and Amit Shah's janam kundli," warned Uddhav Thackeray.

And on Sunday, Thackeray said the development of Mumbai’s Metro rail, which BJP was harping on during its campaign, was actually initiated by the previous Congress-led state government and that BJP has only conducted the 'bhoomi pujan' ceremonies. "Why is BJP in a hurry to get votes on the works done by Congress?" he asked. Uddhav's statements have set gossip mills working overtime in Maharashtra, with speculation rife that the Congress and even NCP are covertly backing the Sena. Nirupam thus was quick to distance the Congress from the Sena chief’s praise.

But the questions in everyone’s minds remain. After all, such fulsome praise for the Sena’s long-standing political opponent—that too barely 10 days before voting begins—has never before been witnessed by Maharashtra. With the outcome of a Mahanagarpalika battle threatening to shake its Mantralaya, the state is closely watching the elections to its capital’s municipal corporation. Counting is on February 23.