Assembly elections 2017: Verdict largely an anti-incumbency vote

Barring Manipur, where the situation is unique and different, I see the verdict as an anti-incumbency vote against the incumbent state governments. Whether it is in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand or Goa, the ruling parties have paid for their misrule.

The second factor that worked in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party is, ironically, demonetisation. Whether notebandi is beneficial or not is a different issue, but there is no doubt that the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi succeeded in convincing the poor that they have the interest of the poor in their mind. Rightly or wrongly, the common man in UP and Uttarakhand saw Modi as a representative of the poor, working against the rich and hoarders of black money.

Not for the first time in UP, the BJP has managed to expand its base beyond the Brahmins and the upper castes. It appears to have succeeded in garnering the votes of the Backward castes in large numbers. Gosain, Nai, Teli, Valmikis have all voted for the BJP.

BJP has also emerged as the only party that, again rightly or wrongly, is unequivocally against acts of terror. I do not want to make any value judgment but I do believe that BJP’s anti-terror stand influenced the Hindu voters to a great extent.

Samajwadi Party has also paid for the family feud that clouded its campaign. At one point it had appeared that Akhilesh Yadav would be able to overcome the odds, but it did not quite work out that way.

For the Congress, Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Bahujan Samaj Party also this verdict poses an existential crisis. All these parties need to introspect. But the problem as I see it is what I call their ‘Sultaniyat’, or their royal arrogance. They want people to approach them for communication but the people and their own workers expect the party leaders to reach out to the people. Despite the alliance with Samajwadi Party, Congress seems to have lost both seats and vote share.

The problem with Ajit Singh and his son is that they believe they have the stature of Chaudhary Charan Singh and Devi Lal. But they are unable to either draw support of Jats for themselves or to transfer votes of Jats to others.

Clearly the Jats who went with BJP in 2014 have not returned. RLD did manage to create some hype over a Jat resurgence but neither their agitation in Haryana on reservation or the whirwind tours of Ajit Singh seem to have had any impact. In any case, the RLD has never received votes from people other than Jats.

The Samajwadi Party had expected that laptops it distributed, the roads it laid etc would be enough to lure the voters. But people seem dissatisfied with corruption, with their participation in development. It holds good for the central government as well, and the BJP scored because at least no union minister has so far been accused of any major corruption.

As far as Bahujan Samaj Party is concerned, its political future also looks uncertain. The trouble is that people tend to overlook and even forgive insensitivity and arrogance of the aristrocracy, the rich and the powerful. But they are harsh when it comes to similar indifference displayed by a commoner and a ‘Dalit Ki Beti’, as Mayawati describes herself.

The one positive thing for the opposition is the way Akhilesh Yadav ran his campaign. He has shown remarkable political maturity at such a young age. It was not easy for him to maintain his dignity in a no-holds-barred campaign. He may well emerge as a leader to take on Modi. Youth is on his side and rather than Nitish Kumar or Arvind Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav appears to hold promise as a future leader.

Sompal Shashtri* is a former Union Minister and veteran political observer

*As told to Vishwa Deepak, National Herald

This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own.