Who will be the next BJP president?

What are the chances that the frosty relationship between the Sangh and Modi’s BJP will thaw now that the party has won the Haryana assembly elections defying all forecasts and expectations?

The question is blowin’ in the wind partly because some commentators are attributing the BJP’s unexpected victory to the ‘hard work’ the RSS put in this time around. Conversely, there are those who question this hypothesis, and ask how come the Sangh’s ‘hard work’ failed eight of 13 ministers and the Speaker in Haryana? The other question gaining currency is whether the Haryana results will strengthen the hands of the BJP or the RSS in their internecine feud.

In political circles, the BJP’s failure to secure a simple majority in the Lok Sabha was attributed partly to the indifference of the RSS during the election campaign. If the RSS did indeed play a hand in Haryana, has it proved a point? Since the Lok Sabha results in June, the acerbic public remarks of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat have left little to the imagination.

Sample these:

“Manipur has been burning for over a year; Whose responsibility is it to douse the fire?”

“Some people believe they are superhuman beings; they want to be treated like gods and eventually as God.”

“Do not assume you are divinity or have divine powers; leave that for people to judge.”

These barbs tell a bitter tale, but some commentators have dismissed talk of a rift in the Sangh Parivar as a red herring. It is fairly well known that till 2015, relations between RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and Prime Minister Narendra Modi were cordial. Indeed, in September 2015, New Delhi hosted a coordination meeting between the ruling party and the RSS in Madhya Pradesh Bhavan.

Every Union minister and even PM Modi dutifully appeared before Bhagwat and the RSS brass to submit their report card and ‘seek guidance’ for the future. Soon after, though, the relationship started going steadily downhill.

Nobody is sure what caused the rift, but that was the first and last coordination meeting attended by the prime minister or any Union minister.

Such is the rift between Modi and Bhagwat that the two, it is reliably learnt, have never had a one-on-one meeting in the past 10 years. They have appeared together at public events like the bhoomi pujan and consecration of the Ram temple at Ayodhya but nothing of note has transpired between the two, nothing barring a formal exchange of greetings.

The two bigwigs are not on talking terms, say Parivar insiders. PM Modi has not visited the Sangh headquarters in Nagpur even once after taking over as prime minister. He has never visited the tombs of RSS founder K.B. Hedgewar or their second sarsanghchalak Golwalkar. He has never paid floral tributes at the Hedgewar Smriti Mandir memorial at the RSS headquarters.

The spat became public when ahead of the Lok Sabha election, BJP president J.P. Nadda told an interviewer that the BJP no longer needed the support of the RSS. Will the Haryana results, then, mark a new inflection point in this fractious relationship?

The swanky new office of the RSS in Delhi’s Jhandewalan is now ready. Built on a 2.5 acre plot, the sprawling new structure has three towers, each with 12 storeys. Each tower has 80 rooms and five elevators. Mohan Bhagwat himself is expected to occupy the top floor of the middle tower.

The complex has a 20-bed hospital and a car park that can accommodate 200 vehicles. The CISF (Central Industrial Security Force) has the security mandate. Why, you may ask, if it’s the office of a ‘non-governmental’ organisation (NGO), but that question too can keep blowin’ in the wind. Nevertheless, the scale of this gigantic building has birthed speculation that the RSS might shift its headquarters from Nagpur to New Delhi.

Besides the residence and office of sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat, the new buildings will also house the offices of other Sangh biggies—Dattatreya Hosabale, Krishna Gopal, Arun Kumar and Suresh Soni. Hosabale, who mostly functions from Lucknow, is expected to take charge of the Delhi headquarters.

One of the remaining two towers will house the offices of all the affiliated organisations of the Sangh. The third tower will have residential facilities for Sangh workers and officials. Insiders claim that Mohan Bhagwat will continue to spend most of his time in Nagpur, but the frequency of his Delhi trips may increase.

Aware of the BJP’s weakening grip on power at the Centre, the RSS seems to be going all out to bridge the gap between Delhi and Nagpur. Signs that despite all the claims and bravado, the BJP and RSS are losing ground in north India are concerns the RSS will want to address.

Also, while Bhagwat may have ruled out any grand centenary celebrations next year, 2025 may well see the RSS usher in some dramatic changes. The new office, insiders say, is not just symbolic, it’s meant to closely watch over the ministries, the PMO and 7 Lok Kalyan Marg.

Will these new developments help the BJP end its year-long search for a new national president? The second term of J.P. Nadda as president ended in January 2024. He was then given a sixmonth extension, ostensibly to oversee the Lok Sabha election. Four months after the Lok Sabha results, he remains the caretaker president.

It is unusual for the BJP to struggle to complete a fairly straightforward exercise, especially since it decided against holding an election to choose the party president. The party’s parliamentary board is authorised to nominate a party president. What’s stopping them, then? Well, the lack of a consensus candidate that the BJP and RSS can agree on.

This has sparked wild speculation over likely candidates—in the mix are names like Vinod Tawde, Sunil Bansal, B.L. Santhosh and Om Mathur, all of whom are old RSS hands and have held organisational positions in the BJP too.

The political grapevine has also aired the names of Sanjay Joshi, Vasundhara Raje Scindia, Ram Madhav, Nitin Gadkari, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Rajnath Singh, Manohar Lal Khattar, Anurag Thakur, Devendra Fadnavis… it goes on.

The RSS, some reports suggested, favoured Sanjay Joshi or Vasundhara Raje, but both names were summarily dismissed by others because they would never be acceptable to Messrs Modi and Shah.

Once powerful Sanjay Joshi has been in the doghouse since the Modi camp released an incriminating CD ahead of a BJP national convention in Mumbai. While Gadkari, as party president, tried to rehabilitate him by making him a member of the national executive, his name had to be dropped following opposition from Modi. Likewise Vasundhara Raje Scindia.

With his penchant for springing a surprise, Modi might come up with a name that does not feature on this long list. What appears certain at this point is that the next BJP president will have to have Narendra Modi’s approval. The RSS may not like it, but it is just not in a position yet to go against Modi’s choice.