Rajasthan by-polls: Rebels add to the BJP’s woes

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s challenge in the Rajasthan assembly by-polls is to claw back the ground lost in the Lok Sabha elections, when it lost 11 of the 25 seats it earlier held.

However, internal differences, the lacklustre performance of the state government and the waning appeal of PM Narendra Modi have made its task more difficult. High inflation, unemployment and promises made during the Lok Sabha campaign that remain unfulfilled are some of the factors that have added to the challenge.

The by-elections on 13 November, Wednesday, are being seen as a referendum on the performance of the BJP government led by Bhajan Lal Sharma.

The state government is widely perceived as weak, as being controlled by bureaucrats and BJP leaders and ministers in New Delhi.

State Congress president Govind Singh Dotasra, spearheading the party’s campaign in the absence of Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot, both of whom are busy campaigning in Maharashtra, rubs it in at every campaign rally and gathering.

“The BJP should know that here we elect the sarpanch and other panchayat office-bearers, and here is the party with a difference that appointed the chief minister by reading out his name from a parchi, a slip of paper,” he says at election meetings.

Dotasra also reminds people of the promises made by prime minister Modi and asks if any of those promises have been fulfilled. “What have you received in the last 10 months? Why should you vote for the BJP again?” is his refrain.

The Congress leader is confident that far from recovering from the Lok Sabha setback, the BJP will lose more ground in the by-elections — which may make no difference to the government, since the party enjoys a convincing majority in the assembly, but will nevertheless deal the saffron brigade a psychological blow with pan-India reverberations.

The BJP's failure to announce an MSP for bajra and a bonus for wheat procurement, its half-hearted implementation or stoppage of welfare schemes such as the Chiranjivee health scheme, the pension scheme, the Indira Rasoi, electricity tariff concessions, etc. — besides the closure of educational institutions and the concessions given to Madhya Pradesh by the state government in the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project — are just some of the reasons that will drive the BJP’s losses this time, Dotasra believes.

The sidelining of veteran BJP leaders such as Radha Mohan Das Agarwal and Vasundhara Raje too has upset many within the Sangh Parivar, he points out.

Out of the seven assembly seats going to the by-polls, four were held by the Congress and one each by the BJP, the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) and the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP). Apart from the BJP and the Congress, Hanuman Beniwal's RLP and Rajkumar Rathore's BAP are also in the fray again, as they seek to consolidate their support base and hope to expand it.

In the 200-member assembly, the BJP currently has 114 MLAs, the Congress has 65, the BAP has 3, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 2 and the RLD has 1. There are also 8 Independent MLAs.

Chief minister Bhajan Lal Sharma has been campaigning hard, accompanying party candidates as they filed their nominations, frequently visiting the constituencies and addressing meetings.

The BJP also faces five rebel candidates, however, who are contesting and could not be persuaded to stay down.

Bhajan Lal has held at least 15 election meetings so far and BJP state unit president Madan Rathor 24 meetings. Will that be enough to salvage the saffron party's position?

That's what many insiders are still pondering, as they point out that unless the party wins at least 2–3 of the seven seats, it will be a serious loss of face.

The by-elections are necessitated by the deaths of several sitting MLAs and the election of some MLAs to the Lok Sabha during this summer’s general election. This marks the first time that seven by-elections are being held simultaneously for the Vidhan Sabha in the state.

There are 84 candidates contesting across the seven Vidhan Sabha constituencies, with the ruling BJP on the defensive since the conclusion of the nomination and withdrawal process.

The chief minister Bhajan has faced criticism within his own party for the slow pace of governance too. And one of his sharpest critics has been senior minister Kirori Lal Meena, who tendered his resignation as a cabinet minister following the BJP's defeat in the three constituencies where he campaigned. Yet he remains a powerful figure within the agriculturist Meena community, which wields significant political influence. Now Kirori Lal Meena’s brother Jagmohan Lal Meena, a state administrative officer, is contesting from Dausa—a constituency that became vacant when Congress MLA Murari Lal Meena was elected to the Lok Sabha.

Dausa, a Meena-dominated constituency, has also seen the Congress introduce an unexpected candidate — D.C. Berwa, from a Scheduled Caste — with the hope of splitting Jagmohan’s support base and allowing the Congress to consolidate the SC, OBC, Brahmin and Muslim votes too.

However, Jagmohan also faces challenges that partly originate in discontent toward his elder brother as well.

The constituency also has a substantial Gujjar vote bank, likely to favour the Congress due to Sachin Pilot’s influence.

Though Dausa is a general constituency, its demographics include approximately 65,000 Meena voters, 67,000 SC voters, 34,000 Brahmins and 20,000 Gujjars, making it a contest of the Meenas vs the other communities.

In the ST-reserved constituency of Deoli–Uniara in Tonk district, meanwhile, the by-election was triggered when former DGP and Congress MLA Harish Meena was elected to the Lok Sabha. The Congress has fielded K.C. Meena here, while the BJP nominated Rajendra Gujjar. The contest has become triangular, however, with the entry of Congress rebel Naresh Meena. Deoli-Uniara’s electorate includes 67,000 Meenas, 35,000 Gujjars and 28,000 SC voters, and the Congress is banking on strong support from all three communities.

Also, notably, former chief minister Vasundhara Raje has been absent from the campaign, refraining from endorsing the BJP candidates.

In the tribal-reserved seats of Chaurasi and Salumbar, there is a direct competition between the BAP and Congress. Chaurasi’s by-election follows the election of sitting BAP MLA Raj Kumar Roat to the Lok Sabha, while the Salumbar seat became vacant after the death of BJP MLA Amrit Lal Meena.

The BJP has nominated Shanti Devi Meena, Amrit Lal’s widow, in Salumbar, hoping to attract sympathy votes, while the Congress has fielded Reshma Meena, who appears to have an advantage. The BAP, aiming to assert its Adivasi influence, has introduced Raj Kumar Katara, who garnered 25,000 votes in the last assembly election in 2023.

In Chaurasi, where the total Adivasi electorate is 194,000, the Congress’ young candidate Ramesh Mahesh Roat faces a triangular contest against the BJP’s Kari Lal Nemana and the BAP’s Anil Katara. The BAP is looking to leveraging Adivasi identity here too, with its demand for a separate tribal state encompassing parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

In Jhunjhunu, the Congress candidate is Amit Ola, son of sitting MLA and minister Brijendra Ola, whose Lok Sabha election caused the vacancy. Amit faces a three-way contest, with the BJP having fielded Rajendra Bhamboo while former MLA Rajendra Gudha of the Rajput community contests as an independent.

The constituency’s electorate is dominated by Jats (62,000), Muslims (54,000) and Scheduled Caste voters (24,000). The Ola family, led by the late Sis Ram Ola — a revered Congress leader and former union minister known for his work with ex-servicemen — enjoys considerable support. The BJP, on the other hand, faces backlash here over the Agniveer scheme, further strengthening Amit Ola’s prospects — especially with significant support likely from the Muslim and SC communities and a likely split in the Jat vote.

The Khinvsar seat was vacated by the RLP chief Hanuman Beniwal’s election to the Lok Sabha election. Beniwal, who previously won the seat in 2019 with the BJP’s support, has now fielded wife Kanika in the three-way fight. Here, the Jat votes are expected to split across the BJP’s Rewant Ram Danga, the Congress’ Ratna Chaudhary (wife of a former IPS officer) and Kanika Beniwal. Khinvsar’s voters include 80,000 Jats, 30,000 Rajputs and 12,000 Brahmins. Beniwal’s political influence here is under greater threat from the BJP candidate.

In Ramgarh in Alwar district, the Congress has fielded Aryan Zubair Khan, son of veteran Meo leader Zubair Khan, whose death triggered the by-poll here. Aryan, well-regarded in the constituency, enjoys substantial support from the Meo Muslim community. His primary challenger is Sukhwant Singh, a Sikh from the Raisikh community, nominated by BJP. The Meo community, agitated by recent mob lynchings and the proposed regulation of waqf boards by the Union government, stands largely behind Aryan.