Only 17 of 100 Biharis support JD(U), says IndiaSpend report

Contrary to popular perception, Nitish Kumar’s supposed popularity in Bihar is not borne out in electoral numbers and no more than 17 of 100 voters chose to vote only for Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), claims an analytical report of IndiaSpend that focused on electoral results over six elections since 2004.

Citing a famous quote by Warren Buffet that “Only when the tide goes out do you know who is swimming naked”, the report says, “only when Nitish was left to contest on his own in 2014 did it become very clear that his support base is not nearly as large and loyal as was perceived. Nitish Kumar needs either the BJP or the RJD more than they need him.”

In the 2015 elections when Nitish, Lalu Yadav and the Congress joined hands, it was Lalu Yadav’s supporters that turned this alliance to victory, the report says.

“The RJD and JD(U) contested in 101 constituencies each as alliance partners in the 2015 election. In more than half of these constituencies, the JD(U) could not transfer all of its votes to this alliance, while the RJD transferred all its votes from 2014 to this alliance in nearly three-fourths of constituencies,” the report said, adding that “the direct beneficiary of this transfer was JD(U), which saw its vote share rise from 17 percent in 2014 to 41 percent in 2015.”

“The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the most popular stand-alone party in Bihar, chosen exclusively by 37 of every 100 voters, regardless of alliances. The BJP’s support in Bihar has been the most stable (37-39 percent), and they appear to have the least to gain from any alliance,” the report claims and adds, “Lalu Yadav’s RJD is the second-most popular party on a stand-alone basis with roughly 30 of 100 voters.”

It also says that over the last decade, voters in Bihar have voted in six elections – 2004 Lok Sabha, 2005 Vidhan Sabha, 2009 Lok Sabha, 2010 Vidhan Sabha, 2014 Lok Sabha and 2015 Vidhan Sabha—during which of every 100 Bihari voters, roughly 37 voted only for the BJP, 30 only for Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), no more than 17 only for the JD (U), and 10 only for the Indian National Congress (INC).

The report further notes that a large number of Biharis vote for the JD(U) only when it is in an alliance. “There were 58 constituencies with an RJD candidate in each of the four elections: 33 percent chose the RJD when it stood alone and 45 percent chose it when it entered into an alliance. The RJD has a much stronger stand-alone support than the JD(U).”