Modi saves Gujarat from Pakistan & BJP the blushes

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s single-minded campaign in the state, often bordering on the bizarre and the communal, delivered Gujarat to the BJP

Final Tally in Gujarat:

BJP: 99

Congress: 77

Independent: 3

Bharatiya Tribal Party: 2

NCP: 1

So, Pakistan failed to influence the outcome of the Gujarat election and install Ahmed Patel as the chief minister. Gujarat no longer runs the risk of being deprived of central assistance as threatened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the election campaign. And for the sixth time in the last 22 years, BJP has managed to win the assembly election in the state. Bravo.

The following two tweets summed up the results and the campaign that preceded it as well as the road forward.

Hardik Patel tweeted in the evening that it was the defeat of issues and people of Gujarat.

While BJP president Amit Shah blamed the Congress for low level of campaigning in the state, Congress President Rahul Gandhi tweeted that he was proud of Gujarat Congressmen who had fought with dignity and grace. While both the parties promised introspection and analysis of their performance, the top level leaders of the Congress failed to win. Both Shaktisinh Govil and Arjun Modhwadia were defated.

A clear rural-urban divide, however, separated the BJP and the Congress with the former bagging 43 of the 55 urban seats while the Congress won 71 of the 127 rural seats. But both parties appear to have made dents into the other’s strongholds with Congress unexpectedly winning 12 of the urban seats and BJP bagging 56 of the rural seats.

So, are the winners the losers and the losers the winners? While the new BJP Government in the state and the Centre will have to move in quickly to address grievances of the farmers, landless and the traders in the state, the two clear winners are the Congress and Hardik Patel. Congress, which had won 61 seats in 2012, was virtually written off after BJP poached 15 of its MLAs just before the Rajya Sabha election earlier this year. So, the party actually gained 34 seats (assuming it does win 80 seats) in this election and not just 19 over 2012.

With Hardik Patel, the 24-year old ‘leader’ reiterating his resolve to carry on his fight against the BJP, it would be interesting to see how the BJP handles him next; or, if he joins the Congress as hinted by him in one of the interviews. In any case, he will be a factor in Gujarat politics in the years to come.

But BJP’s vote share has dropped by 11% from the 2014 general election. At least eight of its cabinet ministers have lost and so have 40 of its 81 MLAs fielded again. All but one or two defectors from the Congress who had joined BJP earlier this year and were given a party ticket have been defeated. Among the other prominent losers from the BJP are Ramsinh Parmar, chairman of AMUL, Jay Narayan Vyas seen frequently on TV and former IPS officer P C Baranda.

In the process BJP chalked out its worst performance since 1995 and the opposition its best performance ever. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which had put up 30 candidates lost the security deposit in most of them barring three, Chhota Udepur, Wankaner and Bapunagar, all won by the Congress by thin margins. As many as 5.46 lakh voters ( 1.8%) exercised the NOTA ( None of the Above) option while Independents and other parties (NCP,BSP, Bharatiya Tribal Party etc.) bagged around 7% of the votes.

While @officeofRG tweeted its acceptance of the people’s mandate and thanked the people, Congress leader in charge of the campaign in Gujarat Ashok Gehlot recalled the spirited campaign put up by the party under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi.

Victories of Jignesh Mevani, supported by the Congress, Alpesh Thakore, farmer leader Dr Kanu Kalsariya and Bhartiya Tribal Party’s Chhotubhai and Mahesh Vasava are also significant as they had been opposing BJP’s policies relentlessly outside the Assembly. Their voice now will be heard inside the Assembly and will be hopefully taken more seriously.