Maharashtra: Playing for time with fingers crossed and ATMs busy

Will delaying elections in Maharashtra make it any easier for the BJP/ Mahayuti to retain power in the state? Or would early elections have served those interests better? The poser from political scientist Suhas Palshikar on social media platform X provoked many responses; most felt it’ll make no difference or that the delay would only make it worse for the Mahayuti coalition.

In 2019, the Assembly election in the state concluded by 21 October and results were announced three days later. Assembly elections in Maharashtra have been held simultaneously with Haryana since 2009. This time, while Haryana will vote on 1 October, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has decided to delay the announcement of poll dates for Maharashtra, citing monsoons and festivals like Ganesh Chaturthi and Diwali as reasons.

The Opposition has slammed the decision. Shiv Sena (UBT) spokesperson Priyanka Chaturvedi said the real reason is that the BJP/ Mahayuti government knows its days are numbered and wants to squeeze as much money as possible out of the system before its time is up.

In fact, the coalition government announcing a sudden spree of welfare schemes, cash transfers and projects (like the Pune Metro) has been likened to students cramming desperately before their final exam after taking it easy all year. The BJP may also be imagining that a reasonable performance in the Haryana Assembly election and a possible split in the INDIA bloc in Jharkhand may positively impact its prospects in Maharashtra.

While Eknath Shinde is brimming with confidence, especially after winning seven Lok Sabha seats compared to the BJP’s nine, most commentators think his confidence is misplaced. Another possible rationale for delaying the poll announcement is that the government wants its cash doles to women and unemployed young men to reach the maximum possible number of people before the elections are held.

What it has done for sure is given the ruling coalition some breathing space to put its house in order. Recently, BJP workers in Pune waved black flags at deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar. Pawar and Shinde have regularly been exchanging barbs at cabinet meetings and holding up ‘files’.

Ramdas Kadam and BJP minister Ravindra Chavan virtually came to blows. Kadam, a Shiv Sena (Shinde) MLA demanded Chavan take responsibility for potholes in Mumbai city and on the Mumbai-Goa highway and resign. Calling each other incompetent illiterate back-stabbers, each threatened to slap the other in public. No better than a bar-room brawl.

The sexual assault of two four-year-old children in an English-medium school in Badlapur, Thane district, has been another shameful matter. Thane is chief minister Shinde’s bastion. The school is said to be ‘owned’ by a BJP supporter/ worker. The Thane police (handpicked by Shinde) dragged its feet, lodging the FIR three whole days later, after a massive protest by parents at Badlapur station brought local trains to a halt.

The Marathi newspaper reporter who broke the story was threatened by a local leader of Shiv Sena (Shinde) and asked why she was reporting it as if she herself had been raped. Education minister Deepak Kesarkar broke his silence only after the public erupted. Shiv Sena (UBT) upped the ante by asking what the BJP/ Mahayuti government had done to secure the President’s assent to the ‘Shakti Bill’ passed by the MVA government in 2021 to ensure time-bound police action and prosecution of crimes against women and children.

The possibility of a spell of President’s Rule to defer the assembly election is also not ruled out. This would put an end to the spectacle of infighting and allow six more months for the BJP and RSS to prepare their ground, say several opposition leaders. The ECI, as usual, has not covered itself in glory, merely added to the state of uncertainty.

Partying on public funds?

Waking up to the needs of the Laadli Behnas and Laadla Bhaus (darling brothers and sisters) just before their term runs out is not the only criticism against the ruling coalition. Their leaders are openly stating that the schemes are conditional. Vote for us, and we’ll double the monthly payout to Rs 3,000, said Shinde, in Pune. Fail to bless our coalition and we’ll take the amount back, announced Independent MLA Ravi Rana, husband of former Independent-turned-BJP MP Navneet Rana. The government has budgeted Rs 200 crore to publicise the scheme in the last three months of its tenure.

Some women voters have been questioning leaders on whether they considered public funds to be ‘party funds’, while others say that the government should ensure women’s safety and basic civic amenities first.

Hobson’s choice

The BJP state unit is in a fix. Head office has instructed them to field 30 per cent fresh faces in the Assembly election to fight anti-incumbency. According to central guidelines, MLAs who have completed two terms are to be sidelined. Devendra Fadnavis, who has been authorised to manage the election in the state, has been an MLA for five terms.

Keen as he is to contest from Nagpur, perhaps he is above the rulebook? Or, as a senior BJP leader declared, is the rulebook to be ruled out as completely impractical? After all, fielding fresh faces is risky and while tickets may be denied to existing MLAs, chances are replacements would come from the same families.

A high stakes chief ministerial face-off

Both Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde want their respective coalitions to project a chief ministerial face before the election. While Thackeray has said he has no objection if his allies decided to project someone other than him, Shinde, distrustful of the BJP, wants the pre-poll insurance for himself. The BJP needs him more than he needs them, is the argument.

The BJP, on its part, is willing to contest the election under the leadership of Shinde but is adamant that the decision on the chief minister be taken by the NDA’s central command, after the election.

For Thackeray, it is a case of once bitten, twice shy. In 2019, he had broken ties with the BJP after the national party allegedly went back on its commitment to make him the chief minister. His stakes are also higher because he is fighting an existential battle, trying to prove in the assembly election that his is the real Shiv Sena.

Somaiya told ‘no closure till full disclosure’

Former BJP MP Kirit Somaiya, better known for accusing opposition leaders of corruption and producing reams of documents as ‘proof’, is in a spot of bother. A Mumbai court has refused to accept the ‘closure report’ in a case filed against him by the Economic Offences Wing of Mumbai Police.

Somaiya was accused of collecting Rs 57 crore from the public for the rescue, renovation and rehabilitation of INS Vikrant, the Indian Navy’s first aircraft carrier, which played a historic role in the 1971 war with Pakistan. Decommissioned in 1997, it was dismantled and sold as scrap in 2014. Somaiya was apparently raising funds to convert the aircraft carrier into a museum.

The closure report was found unsatisfactory by the court as it provided no details of how the money was spent, where the donations were made and to what purpose.