Maharashtra is sending out mixed signals

The BJP has been handed a crackling defeat in Maharashtra. The party has lost confidence and no longer believes it can win the Assembly elections on its own.

BJP state president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said at a press conference that the opposition came into power in Maharashtra by mistake; they would hinder PM Modi’s schemes being delivered to the people. The BJP, he said, would not fight the Vidhan Sabha elections alone, but together with the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Ajit Pawar’s NCP.

Meanwhile, having won 30 out of 48 seats, the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s morale is high. They say, if we stay united in our resolve to keep the BJP out, we will form the government in Maharashtra. The next few months promise to be exciting.

Both the Mahayuti and the MVA alliances have faced off with their particular strengths on the ground. While the Modi-dependent BJP was troubled by its sinking support, Shinde’s Shiv Sena revelled in being more popular than their ally. This explains Shinde considering himself the big brother in the Mahayuti, with Sanjay Shirsat declaring that their ‘strike rate’ in the Lok Sabha has been good.

This harks back to the days of Balasaheb Thackeray, when the Shiv Sena was accepted as the senior partner and the BJP as the junior. Shiv Sena (Shinde) won 7 out of the 15 seats it fought, a 12.9 per cent vote share. The BJP fought for the maximum number of seats possible (28) and won only 9 (26 per cent vote share). Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) also won 9 seats with a vote share of 16.7 per cent. Having performed better than the BJP, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) is demanding a larger number of seats, and of course, the chief ministership.

The Ajit Pawar NCP faction, having won just a single seat (a vote share of 3.6 per cent), trailed way behind Sharad Pawar’s NCP, which contested 10 seats and won 8 of them (a vote share of 10.2 per cent).

The Congress also performed fairly well, winning 13 seats (a vote share of 16.9 per cent). In 2019, it had won just a single seat.

Vote shares, however, may not reflect the actual position because no party contested the election alone.

Given that the BJP’s margin between victory and defeat has been in the mere thousands, it is soothing its wounds accordingly. Modi’s near and dear Devendra Fadnavis (also deputy chief minister of Maharashtra) has consoled himself with the declaration that he got only 2 lakh votes less than the MVA. In fact, he won 2 lakhs more in Mumbai, and they are ahead in 130 assembly constituencies in the state!

Bawankule claims that the MVA only got 0.3 per cent more votes than the Mahayuti. But as a leader from Sharad Pawar’s NCP said, on condition of anonymity, that the biggest question is: How did the BJP lose despite getting the highest vote share of 26 per cent?

Have Modi–BJP–RSS lost their grip? They are the weak partners in the alliance, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP has exposed their weakness. Pawar pointed out that Modi addressed rallies in 17 constituencies, and lost 15 of them to the MVA. Thank you, prime minister, he said, for doing us that favour.

Political analysts believe the Hindutva card did not work in Maharashtra.

Its people quietly showed what they thought of the BJP’s split-and-sunder tactics to break the NCP and Shiv Sena apart. It couldn’t be clearer that Uddhav’s Shiv Sena and Sharad’s NCP were the genuine ‘asli’ article.

What the BJP and Shinde admit grudgingly is that the MVA’s success was issued-based. People voted MVA to save democracy and the Constitution.

Now the BJP will deploy its own battle strategy. Believing that it is Uddhav who garnered the Muslim vote for the MVA, they will do their damnedest to break this vote bank.

The Shinde government has just approved a grant of Rs 10 crore to the Maharashtra Waqf Board, of which an advance of Rs 2 crore has already been released. Hindu organisations have opposed this decision and accused the Shinde government of ‘Muslim appeasement’.

In its defence, the Shinde government said the current state government has merely executed a decision made in 2011 by a parliamentary committee of the central government to disburse grants to the Waqf Board.

Meanwhile the Ajit faction of the NCP has raised the issue of reservations for economically weaker Muslims in educational institutions.

According to a Shiv Sena (UBT) leader, the BJP is well aware that the MVA has the advantage in 158 of 288 seats. This is nothing but an expression of the people’s anger against the BJP, and is likely to be seen in the assembly elections as well.

It is not just the Muslims who are angry with the BJP; it’s the OBCs, the farmers, the Dalits and the Adivasis as well.

The demand for Maratha reservation is ongoing, and the BJP stands accused of dividing OBCs in the name of Maratha reservation.

In north Maharashtra, it’s the onion farmers who are angry; in Marathwada and Vidarbha it’s those who grow cotton and soyabean. Sharad Pawar has told the famers it is only a matter of four months before their problems are resolved, as soon as the government changes.

Despite its defeat, the BJP has not changed its attitude, however. The lack of faith in either Ajit Pawar’s NCP or Shinde’s Sena pulling off a win in the Lok Sabha elections is still animating the BJP’s internal surveys in the run-up to the assembly elections. The BJP, by contesting as many seats as possible, hopes to form the government on its own steam.

As of now, that does not seem likely.

The BJP's alliance with Shinde and Ajit Pawar is built on a foundation of distrust. Ajit’s faction has already demanded 80–90 seats. The BJP, with its 105 seats, wants to contest 185 seats. Shinde’s faction is still scrounging for its own seats.

Such is the level of distrust that losing BJP candidates have openly accused both factions of being responsible for their defeat.

The Shinde group, meanwhile, is angry about the BJP encouraging the openly anti-north Indian MNS (Maharashtra Navnirman Sena) leader, Raj Thackeray. Raj was the reason Uddhav’s Marathi vote bank stayed undented—Uddhav’s candidates won all three seats in Mumbai. Shinde won in Thane and Kalyan because that’s his fiefdom.

Political analyst Deepak Kaitke says the BJP keeps harping on the Marathi and Muslim vote. But why did the majority of Mumbai’s north Indians go off to UP–Bihar when they had a chance to vote? Special trains were organised for them. In whose books did these north Indian votes show up? No one is talking about this.

A senior journalist, on condition of anonymity, said that for the assembly elections, the MVA will need at least 3.5 per cent more votes than the BJP. The BJP on its own will need 1.5 per cent more votes, while the Ajit Pawar and Shinde factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP will need to increase vote shares by 2 per cent.

The weakest link in the Mahayuti chain is Ajit Pawar, whose wife Sunetra Pawar failed to win Baramati. Sharad Pawar will leave no stone unturned to defeat Ajit from Baramati once again.

The BJP has another tough decision to make and that’s acknowledging Shinde’s leadership. While the buzz is that Shinde will lead the BJP fight for the Vidhan Sabha, the BJP has announced that no other party can take PM Modi’s schemes to the people of Maharashtra. Shinde had announced that he would fight for a ‘suicide-free’ Maharashtra. This remains an announcement.

Pressured by the BJP, there has been hardly any headway on the farmers’ and Maratha reservation issues. Nor has Shinde been able to stop the exodus of industry from Maharashtra to Gujarat. Underplaying the schemes of the Shinde government may cost the BJP dearly.