Jharkhand: 8 reasons why voters will not dump Hemant Soren tomorrow

With as many as 20 ST-reserved seats in Jharkhand going to the polls in the first phase of the assembly election on 13 November (tomorrow, Wednesday), the question on everyone’s lips is whether the BJP will be able to make a dent among the tribals.

That is because the BJP had won in the last elections only 2 of the 28 seats in the state assembly reserved for Scheduled Tribes. In contrast, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) had won 26 of these reserved seats in 2019, virtually all but 4 of its tally of 30 seats. 

The BJP has made a determined bid to improve its standing among the tribals this time.

First, it brought back Babulal Marandi — who had parted with the party in 2006 and had since then been a trenchant critic of the BJP governments — and made him state president! It also welcomed Geeta Koda from the Congress and Seeta Soren, estranged sister-in-law of Hemant Soren, from the JMM, before inducting Champai Soren, who was the JMM chief minister till June 2024.   

Despite all the jockeying and horse-trading, however, there are important reasons why the BJP does not appear to be making much headway in its mission.

The Adivasis in Jharkhand seem to have little reason to desert the JMM and embrace the BJP. The ruling party at the Centre has little to show by way of evidence of its love for tribals — be it in Jharkhand or elsewhere. Meanwhile, the JMM has been persistent in hammering its record home.

These are some of the other factors why tribal voters may not have strong enough reasons to abandon the JMM and Hemant Soren. (As for Kalpana Soren, some observers have felt she is even more popular than her spouse.)  

1. There is little evidence of any strong anti-incumbency against the JMM-led government in the state. The restoration of the Old Pension scheme to employees, the waiver of electricity bills, cash transfers to all women (including from the upper castes), universal old-age pension and disability pension, restoration of 11 lakh ration cards scrapped by the BJP government headed by Raghubar Das, expanding the PDS scheme by over 4 million, waiver of farmers’ loans, etc., are steps which benefitted all sections. There is thus no visible anger against the state government. 

2. The emergence of Hemant Soren as a tall state-level leader of Jharkhand, overshadowing his predecessors in office — including the redoubtable Shibu Soren. Hemant Soren’s stature today towers over that of Babulal Marandi, Arjun Munda, Champai Soren, Raghubar Das and Madhu Koda. Soren’s imprisonment for six months this year on corruption charges appears to have made little dent in his popularity among the Adivasis, whatever others may say notwithstanding. 

3. The emergence of Kalpana Soren as a powerful orator. Most observers believe she is more articulate than her husband, the chief minister. She has certainly not shied away from attacking prime minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah. A much sought-after campaigner among the INDIA bloc’s candidates, she has been drawing large crowds and has criss-crossed the state over the past several weeks. 

4. The BJP’s fearmongering and divisive campaign does not seem to have found many takers in the state. Even a report in the Indian Express today acknowledged that there are no takers for Himanta Biswa Sarma’s allegation of mass-scale infiltration of Bangladeshis in Santhal Pargana. The prime minister’s fear-mongering that the opposition would take away the tribals’ land and women (maati and beti), Biswa Sarma’s diatribe on land jihad and love jihad and promise to change the name of Hussainabad to Ramakrishnapur have received no traction, except in the media.

5. The JMM has successfully championed the interests of Adivasis and espoused a Jharkhandi identity, invoking pride in belonging to the state. It has lent its weight to the Sarna code, as distinct from mainstream Hinduism, and demanded that provisions of the Fifth Schedule be implemented in letter and spirit in Jharkhand. It has addressed the fears around Adivasis losing their land and has categorically offered to oppose the land acquisition and ‘land bank’ policies of the BJP. It has, indeed, demanded the implementation of PESA Act in spirit, by making consent of the Gram Sabha mandatory before taking away tribal land. It has stood by the CNT and Santhal Pargana Tenancy Acts, which the BJP government had tried to do away with. 

6. Hemant Soren and the JMM have emerged as the champion of Adivasis’ Jal–Jungle–Jameen and have minced no words in demanding the implementation of the Forest Rights Act. 

7. Chief minister Hemant Soren has turned the tables on BJP star campaigner Himanta Biswa Sarma, the Assam chief minister, in the contest of ‘equals’. Soren has asked Sarma why he had failed to give ST status to the ‘tea tribes’ of Assam, who had migrated from Jharkhand a century ago. He has also pitted against the BJP’s voluble leader’s divisive campaign his own arraignments of the saffron party. The contest, Soren has highlighted, is between a predatory BJP — which is interested in looting Jharkhand of its minerals and selling its land to industrialist cronies such as Gautam Adani — versus the party that got Jharkhand its statehood and tribal identity. Adivasis who had opposed the Adani Power project in Godda — pointing out that the group was using the state’s land, water and resources to generate power for Bangladesh, without giving anything in taxes to the state — fear that if the BJP returns to power, it might hand over the iron-ore mines of Singhbhum also to its cronies.  

8. The JMM has also campaigned extensively around Jharkhand’s stepmotherly treatment from the union government. It has been consistently asking why the union government and the PSU mining companies are not releasing the Rs 1.36 lakh crore due to the state as arrears of mining royalty. 

The focus on polling day, tomorrow, will be on the voter turnout.

A low voter turnout will indicate the failure of the ruling coalition in the state to mobilise its supporters, with the BJP faring better in this department. A high turnout, contrary to conventional wisdom, may actually indicate a vote for continuity and not for change, with non-tribals not feeling threatened enough to see the back of Hemant Soren either.