Gujarat Exit polls defy political logic

The predictions made by half a dozen exit pollsters for the TV news channels last night do not really surprise those who have been watching their pronouncements for close to a year, how they have been building up this scenario from the start in the run-up to the Gujarat Assembly elections, turning a blind eye to the widely reported and telecast resentment against the ruling BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself, cutting across caste, class and rural urban divide, that these pollsters have been tryng to underplay.

Nevertheless, if these predictions do actually come true, and going by the previous instances of such an unforeseen sweep for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh or more recently its sweep in UP mayoral elections with the support of the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), while getting routed in nagar palika parishads and nagar panchayats, where ballot papers were used, it will prove two things beyond doubt. One that the EVM has to go and the Election Commission's role under a former principal secretary of Narendra Modi needs to be questioned. But simultaneously, there is need to raise questions also about the fairness and objetivity of these pollsters as well.

It sounds paradoxical, doesn't it? No. Because we see that these pollsters have been making peredictions of Modi’s victory in Gujarat in spite of the overwhelming response of the Patel youth to the call given by their leader Hardik Patel. They seem to have dismissed the strong assertive statewide movement of the Dalits under the leadership of Jignesh Mevani and simply turned a blind eye to the traders' rally comprising lakhs of them. Do we remember reading the report that Chief Minister Vijay Rupani wanted to change his constituency or be allowed to contest from two places but that Modi ruled that out? Wasn't Hardik's rally far bigger than the Chief Minister's. Now, if the BJP wins, shouldn't we ask how?

These pundits are either ignorant or didn't care to take note of the strong and loud protests of the groundnut and cotton farmers. As a matter of fact, it begs a question which section of the Gujarati society was solidly and unitedly committed to Modi in this election. All this was visible to even the blind.

But if the BJP actually wins Gujarat Assembly polls, 2017, and pompous BJP president Amit Shah's boastful claim comes anywhere close to what Today's Chanakya has also forecast in its so called exit poll, then that means these pollsters were privy to the planned rigging and manipulation of Gujarat elections through programming of the EVMs in advance. To put it more bluntly, they were complicit with the BJP, the Election Commission and Modi/Amit Shah duo in the crime of sabotaging the people's real verdict.

Or else, all the reports of all-round resentment against the government, both in the print and visual media were false and fake, which is ridiculous. In that case, these pollsters were complacent in the advance knowledge that people's mood be damned, the enthusaistic and overwhelming response to Rahul Gandhi be dismissed, the victory of Modi/Amit Shah is a foregone conclusion.