Maharashtra: ECI doing its best to swing a nail-biter

The Maharashtra assembly election a month from now will determine more than which coalition rules the state next—it will be pivotal in shaping national politics in days to come.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) knew what it was doing when it decided to not announce the dates for the Maharashtra election simultaneously with Haryana—the state’s ruling coalition had to be given enough time to reap the benefits of their monthly cash transfer scheme for women.

The Ladki Bahin scheme was announced in August, two months after the Lok Sabha results. The Mahayuti government has promised to double the payout of Rs 1,500 to every woman in the state, should they return to power. Similarly, restricting the polling to one day (20 November) will put the resource-poor Opposition at a disadvantage—the four-phase polling for the Lok Sabha had allowed the Opposition to campaign more extensively, region by region, even with limited resources.

The counting of votes is scheduled for 23 November whereas a new government must be formed by 26 November, when the term of the present assembly ends. It is highly unusual to allow so little time for the formation of government.

In Haryana, for instance, results were declared on 8 October, allowing 18 days to usher in the new state government. Why allow just two days in Maharashtra, a much bigger state with a multi-polar contest? Nobody has posed this question to the ECI—what if no single party or pre-poll alliance manages to secure a clear majority on 23 November? There will be no time for post-poll negotiations, leading to the possibility of President’s Rule in the state.

Emboldened by the Haryana results, the BJP is likely convinced that its ‘management’ of the polls can triumph again over the mahaul. As in Haryana, where the results defied all expectations and forecasts, the mood is decidedly against the BJP and the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra.

Farmers, Marathas, Dalits, tribals and Muslims have all been unhappy for different reasons. Unemployment and inflation persist. Rising input costs and sluggish commodity prices, especially for cotton and soyabean, have hurt the farmers. The Marathas are aggrieved that they have been denied reservation from the OBC quota, and the OBCs feel cheated by the attempt to ‘steal’ a part of their quota for the Marathas.

The Dalits are deeply distrustful of the BJP’s attempts to reshape the Constitution and the tribals are upset over the changes in the Forest Rights Act. The Muslims know where they stand with this government and hold their breath in the hope for change.

The ruling Mahayuti alliance is counting on voters turning transactional, hoping that their sops will sway the electorate. The last four months have seen the state government make over 150 announcements—Diwali bonuses for employees, subsidies for cotton and soyabean growers, a daily allowance of Rs 50 for each cow to farmers, free bus rides for elderly women, kitchen utensils and saris for young women, kits for construction workers, salary hikes for madrasa teachers and Haj committee members… it’s raining revdis.

Analysts seem to agree that the election will be tight. In the Lok Sabha election, the difference in total vote percentage between the two coalitions was a little over 1 per cent (MVA 43.91 per cent and Mahayuti 42.73 per cent). The assembly election will also decide which faction of the Shiv Sena and NCP has popular support.

No one will be surprised if independent candidates and rebels emerge kingmakers or regional parties switch loyalties. Some observers believe emotional issues will trump the substantive ones of unemployment and inflation. 

B-gang vs D-gang?

The alacrity with which BJP supporters have pointed fingers at Lawrence Bishnoi—in jail for the past 10 years and currently in Ahmedabad’s Sabarmati jail—for the murder of former MLA Baba Siddique is suspicious. According to the Maharashtra police, the Bishnoi gang’s raison d’être is to terrorise and extort Mumbai’s film industry. (It seems they were denied permission to question Bishnoi after a gunfire incident outside actor Salman Khan’s house in April this year.)

The allegation by Canadian Police that Indian government agencies were using the Bishnoi gang to assassinate pro-Khalistan activists in Canada provided another twist to the tale. With reports that Amit Shah’s ministry bent the rules to disallow interrogation of the gangster, the plot thickened.

A hasty Facebook post by an ostensible gang member in Canada claiming responsibility for the murder also raised eyebrows. It seems Baba Siddique was killed for his ‘friendship’ with Salman Khan, who was accused of killing two blackbucks in Rajasthan in 1998 during a film shoot. Few have fallen for the revenge angle.

The real reason could be political, or rivalry among builders. The killing is being linked to the Dharavi ‘redevelopment’ project and disputes over resettlement of residents. Dharavi is cheek-by-jowl with Bandra. Siddique was elected to the legislature from Bandra West and his son Zeeshan from Bandra East. In 2019, Ashish Shelar of the BJP had defeated Siddique.

After being hounded by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), Siddique had gone over to the NCP (Ajit Pawar) after a lifetime with the Congress, where his mentor was the late actor, MP and Union minister Sunil Dutt.

On 5 October, yet another NCP (Ajit Pawar) leader Sachin Kurmi was killed in Mumbai’s Byculla. Opposition alleged that Kurmi had expressed apprehensions about threats to his life but was denied adequate police protection. Demands for the resignation of home minister Devendra Fadnavis escalated as this was the third political murder in the city this year, the first being Abhishek Ghosalkar who was shot dead on 8 February during a Facebook live session.

Film director and producer Ram Gopal Varma’s tongue-in-cheek post on social media summed it up:

‘A lawyer turned gangster wants to take revenge for a deer’s death by killing a super star and as a warning, orders some of his gang of 700, who he recruited through Facebook to first kill a politician who is a close friend of the star… the police cannot catch him because he is under the protection of the government in a jail and his spokesman speaks from abroad… If a Bollywood writer had come up with a story like this, they would have thrashed him for writing the most unbelievable and ridiculous story ever…’ 

Certified malice towards Muslims

Savarkar’s great-grandson Ranjit has launched a campaign to popularise ‘Om certification’ to counter ‘Halal certified’ products. The certificates vouch for the ‘purity’ of products sold and are being issued by Om Foundation of which Ranjit Savarkar happens to be the president.

The campaign, soon to go countrywide, was launched in June this year, targeting shops outside the Trimbakeshwar temple in Nashik. While the claim was to prevent ‘foul practices’, the actual aim was to drive out Muslim shopkeepers who have sold flowers, garlands and trinkets outside the temple for generations.

Dharmaraobaba Atram, minister in charge of FDA (Food and Drug Administration), has  questioned the authority and competence of the foundation to distribute these certificates.

Others like Purushottam Kadlag of the NCP (Sharad Pawar) have wondered if the foundation would also certify who actually grows the nuts, raisins and other ingredients in the prasad under scrutiny.