Can President-elect Donald Trump come to the rescue of Gautam Adani?

On social media in India all through Thursday, 21 November, a large number of Indians expressed the view that no harm could come to Indian billionaire — and until recently one of the world’s three richest people — Gautam Adani.

Indicted by a US court following an investigation by the FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) and following prosecution initiated by the US Department of Justice, warrants of arrest were issued on Wednesday by a court in New York against the industrialist, his nephew and six other executives. They are accused of duping US investors and institutions and bribing Indian government officials with money raised in the US.

Gautam Adani was aware of the investigation since March 2023 when the FBI had served notice to his nephew Sagar Adani in the United States and confiscated his electronic devices. A search warrant was served to him too, which the nephew immediately shared with his uncle, prosecutors claimed in court filings.

It is not certain if the ongoing inquiry had anything to do with Gautam Adani’s effusive post on X on 6 November after Donald Trump was declared the winner in the US Presidential elections.

In the gushing tweet, Gautam Adani posted, “If there is one person on Earth who stands as the embodiment of unbreakable tenacity, unshakeable grit, relentless determination and the courage to stay true to his beliefs, it is Donald Trump. Fascinating to see America’s democracy empower its people and uphold the nation's founding principles. Congratulations to the 47th POTUS-elect”.

A week later on 13 November, Adani again took to X to say, “As the partnership between India and the United States deepens, the Adani Group is committed to leveraging its global expertise and invest $10 billion in US energy security and resilient infrastructure projects, aiming to create up to 15,000 jobs.”

His record of job creation in India — where his large conglomerate employs only around 30,000 people — being not quite great, the tweet induced more amusement than awe. It is not known if it impressed President-elect Trump. In any case, asked people in India, why wouldn’t Adani create jobs in India, where youth are desperately looking for decent and stable employment?

A possible answer followed on 20 November, when the grand jury in a US court decided to indict Adani and his associates. It is possible that Adani and his advisors are hopeful that PM Modi will be able to use his alleged influence and persuade ‘friend’ Donald Trump to pull the Adanis off the hook.

However, whether the President-elect can do any such thing and whether he would like to interfere and trigger another political controversy are questions that will have to wait for answers. Some observers believe that Indians overestimate the influence that PM Modi may have with Trump. The ‘friendship’ is way more in Modi’s mind than Trump’s, they seem to suggest.

It is, however, true that the President-elect once wanted to strike down the FCPA (Foreign Corrupt Practices Act) in his first term since he considered it “unfair” to American companies. Another prominent critic of the law, Jay Clayton, whom Trump appointed US attorney for the Southern District of New York, had reportedly contended that US anti-bribery policies disproportionately burdened American companies in international transactions, thereby undermining US competitiveness.

However, Donald Trump being Donald Trump, he appears to have shifted his position and in his second term is reported to be keen to go after foreign, non-American companies. He does not need an endorsement from the Indian PM either.

Moreover, the US Department of Justice boasts of a 98 per cent conviction rate. They don't indict unless they are 100 per cent sure they can get a conviction from court. Generally the department operates independently and is technically and traditionally not answerable to the White House.

However, Trump certainly wants to bring the department of justice under his control. So, Gautam Adani may have reasons to hope that the president-elect would get him off the hook. With Donald Trump, who can say for sure?