Sharifs back in favour with Pakistan’s military establishment after its fallout with Imran Khan

Recent developments in Pakistan have made it clear that incumbent Prime Minister Imran Khan is in trouble and is likely to be ousted very soon. The Opposition parties had moved a no-confidence motion against him on March 8 which was tabled before the National Assembly on Monday.

Under the constitution of Pakistan, the Speaker of the National Assembly is bound to call the session of the National Assembly within fourteen days after the receipt of the requisition of the session and hold voting within seven days after the presentation of a no-confidence motion. The Speaker, in this case, called the session on March 25 as there was a OIC Foreign Ministers’ conference being held in the country from March 22 to 24, 2022. Voting is expected to be held on April 3 or 4.

On Wednesday, his main ally, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which has seven seats, abandoned Khan’s coalition and threw its lot in with the opposition seeking to remove him. PML (Q), which has six seats and BAP with five seats too have signaled their intention to vote in favour of the motion.

“The prime minister is as good as gone,” influential English-language Dawn newspaper said in an editorial on the front page of its website on Wednesday.

As reported earlier, the opposition parties of Pakistan have agreed on the name of Mian Shahbaz Sharif as Prime Minister. He is the younger brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, currently living in exile in London after being disqualified for life by the country’s Supreme Court in 2017.

The nomination of Shahbaz Sharif as a consensus candidate is being seen as a comeback for the Sharifs in the country’s politics. It is expected that Nawaz Sharif too will return to Pakistan once his brother is sworn in as Prime Minister.

As of now, it appears that Imran Khan will lose the no-confidence motion and there will be a change of government. Imran Khan came into power with the backing of the military establishment, which has been his strength for the last four years. However, now the opposition is claiming that the military establishment has gone ‘neutral’, which implies that it is no longer supporting him. It is perceived that his allies have changed camps due to this shift in its stance.

It was evident from the very first day of Imran Khan being sworn in as PM that he cannot hold on to power without the help of the military establishment, which helped him stay the course for the four years.

But nobody could have predicted that a disagreement relating to the appointment of a new DG ISI between the military establishment and Imran Khan in October 2021 will eventually lead the former to withdraw its support to him.

Imran Khan wanted to retain Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed as DG ISI while the military establishment wanted to change him. When ISPR issued posting orders of a new DG ISI, Imran Khan resisted the move, withholding his assent. Under the country’s constitution, the PM’s signatures are mandatory for transfer or appointment of DG ISI.

Imran Khan eventually surrendered and signed the order after three weeks of a standoff between him and the military establishment. But the fissure that was created in those three weeks is evidently leading to his ouster.

Imran Khan is now accusing ‘foreign powers’ for his ouster. In his last public gathering in the capital Islamabad on March 27, he declared that he had ‘proof’ that his ouster was a result of ‘foreign intervention’. He waved a letter but did not reveal its contents, claiming that it won’t be in national interest to do so. He is yet to name the ‘foreign power’ though he has hinted that it might be the US.

If the Sharifs return to power, it would indicate that any dispute between them and the country’s military establishment stands resolved. Shahbaz Sharif has always been an advocate for good relations with the military establishment. It is believed that this is the reason that the military establishment has agreed to his candidature as the PM.

Imran Khan's fall from grace was more than evident when Pakistan's National Assembly reverberated with chants of 'Go Imran Go' on Thursday, video footage of which went viral: