US midterm polls: Voters put Hillary-esque Democrats and Trump on notice

As the results from the 2018 Midterm Polls in the United States started pouring in, analysts of all stripes agreed that there was no visible wave this time to speak of. They were partially right. On the face of it, while Republicans solidified their majority in the Senate, Democrats won back the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010; but it is in the way Democrats won that the possibility of a future “Blue Wave” is hidden.

Let’s talk about the Senate races first. It was always going to be a tough race for the Democrats since most of the seats going for polls had Democrat incumbents, including many in 10 of the states that President Trump won in 2016 polls. Many Democrat Senators such as Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and Claire McCaskill in Missouri—both very solid Republican Red states—were already walking on a tight wire. Their decision to vote against the nomination of Republican-nominated Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during the confirmation process meant that conservative voters were not going to give them any quarters in the coming polls. Both sunk.

So did Joe Donnelly in Indiana. Bill Nelson in Florida did put a spirited fight but couldn’t save the seat amidst successful Republican attempts towards voter suppression. They did pick up one from Republican kitty, but that was not enough. The Senate will remain Red till the Presidential Polls in 2020 when more Republican-held seats come up for grabs.

At a personal level, President Trump will keep harping that those states where he campaigned, Republicans performed exceptionally better. His rallies in Florida, Texas and Georgia did indeed help bring out the Republican base that catapulted the candidates across the finishing line, but what Trump doesn’t want you to know is that he deliberately chose those candidates to appear with who were either in solid Red states or were in a Red-leaning state.

The House and Gubernatorial polls saw Democrat resurgence almost universally. Not only did they pick the House for the first time since 2010, but they also defeated several serving Republican Governors while losing none. Republicans did win Alaska but it was held by an independent that used to lean Democrat.

After the debacle of 2016, Democrats seems to have at least partially rebuilt the “Blue Wall” in several of the Midwest and Great Lake states. In Kansas, Laura Kelly has been elected as the Governor. In Iowa, Democrats won as many as three congressional races. In Michigan, rising Democrat superstar Gretchen Whitmer has not only won the state or the Party, but he is also expected to energise the Party in the entire Midwest region.

Democrats won Gubernatorial and Senate races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—all won by Trump in 2016. In fact, it was these three states that sunk Hillary Clinton. The voting pattern suggests that it was neutral voters, as well as educated white voters in the suburbs—who normally vote Republican—catapulted Democrats in these states.

The situation in Sun Belt didn’t favour the Democrats who ultimately lost the battle in spite of putting a ferocious fight, but the leftist, progressive Democrat stars who put the fight there gave a clear message to the Establishment Democrats that Democrat voters will prefer those leftist, progressive candidates who talk about bread-and-butter issues such as better roads, improved infrastructure, better schools, etc, to a corporate darling like Hillary Clinton who—while chastising Trump—has nothing fresh to offer. The same holds true for those who won in the Great Lake states.

For President Trump, losing the House can become very problematic both in terms of realising his legislative ambitions as well as his personal grip on the Party. On the legislative ambition side, he is in all practical purposes a lame-duck till 2020 in that Democrats in the House will not allow him to pass any more bills that deal with issues close to his heart such as funding the promised border wall with Mexico, passing a second tax-cut package or further upping the ante of a trade war with China and other states.

On the personal side, House Republicans, who were toeing his line on the fear of getting punished by the Republican base for opposing Trump, have nothing to lose now and can become vocal against him. Also, Democrats will now lead all the House Committees and that means they can open investigations regarding Trump’s tax return and other misdemeanours, which will see the Capitol in a gridlock till 2020.

The writer is visiting faculty at University of Warsaw