Pakistan Army chief Gen Bajwa keen to improve relations with India; backchannel talks on: Dr Ayesha Siddiqa

Pakistani political scientist, political commentator and noted author Dr Ayesha Siddiqa feels that embattled Pakistan PM Imran Khan may have dug his political grave by defying the country’s all-powerful military establishment, forgetting that its support propped him up as PM in the first place.

In an exclusive interview with Zafar Agha, Group Editor-in-Chief of National Herald, Dr Siddiqa, author of critically acclaimed book Military Inc: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy, currently in London to pursue higher studies, also opined that Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa was keen on peaceful relations with India.

Asked about the political situation in Pakistan vis-à-vis the voting on the opposition’s no-confidence motion in the National Assembly scheduled for April 3, Dr Siddiqa said hectic political negotiations were evidently going on at the moment.

“The opposition has, no doubt, made it clear that it is keen on Khan’s ouster, but it can’t be ruled out that some sort of an agreement takes place wherein Khan’s party Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) continues to be in power till elections are held a few months down the line, with somebody other than him taking over as PM. We should get clarity on the situation tomorrow after the session concludes,” she said.

Responding to a question on why Imran Khan found himself in this situation, Dr Siddiqa said that he had antagonized the military establishment, which backed him to take over as the PM in the first place in 2018, first by muddying the waters when Gen Bajwa’s tenure as Pakistan Army chief came up for extension in 2019 and later opposing the appointment of a new Director General (DG) of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

“The matter relating to Gen Bajwa’s extension as Army chief eventually ended up in Pakistan Supreme Court, which did not of course please the military establishment. Then, in October 2021, Gen Bajwa announced the transfer of ISI DG Lt Gen Faiz Hameed as corps commander in Peshawar. But Imran Khan wanted to retain him and refused to sign off on the order. He eventually did give his assent, but he evidently fell further out of favor with them,” she said.

Asked to rate Imran Khan’s tenure, she said, “He did some good things. For instance, the national health scheme under which all families in the country can avail medical treatment up to Rs 1 million was a good move. But unfortunately, he spent an inordinate amount of time going after or showing down his political opponents,” she said.

To a discussion on who was likely to replace Imran Khan, Dr Siddiqa concurred that Pakistan Muslim League (N) leader Shahbaz Sharif seemed set to take over once there was a change of government. “He is favoured by the military establishment because he has always advocated for civilians maintaining good relations with it,” she said.

“Punjab province plays a huge role in the politics of the country, and even though the Pakistan military establishment does of course set the narrative and manipulates the election process to ensure some of its favourite candidates win etc, it can’t really keep out somebody from taking over as PM if the popular mandate is in his favour,” she added.

Asked about what role former PM Nawaz Sharif, Shahbaz’s elder brother, living in exile in London after being permanently disqualified to hold office by the Pakistan Supreme Court, may play in the country now, she said, “It’s entirely possible that he makes a comeback. The National Assembly may well overturn his disqualification.”

Asked about where things stood in Pakistan with respect to India, Dr Siddiqa said, “Gen Bajwa is keen to improve relations with India.”

Asked if it was possible that a backchannel diplomatic process may already be on, she said, “Yes, I would think so, though I don’t of course have specific information about it.”

She also expressed hope that the situation may improve considering that the Modi govt had abstained from making any adverse comments about Pakistan for some time now.

WATCH THE INTERVIEW: