What Indians can expect from Keir Starmer, the new UK PM

Voters have spoken in the mother of modern democracy. The British Labour party, which ruled when the UK government conceded independence to India in 1947, is back in the saddle after 14 years in the opposition.

Not just that: it has been elected with the biggest majority since it was founded in 1900, while the 192-year-old Conservative party led by prime minister Rishi Sunak has suffered its worst-ever defeat.

It is, by any account, a historic outcome.

Around 4:40 a.m. British time (9:10 p.m. IST), a grim-faced Sunak, who retained his own seat in rural Yorkshire county, publicly disclosed he had phoned his rival Sir Keir Starmer, 61, to congratulate him and acknowledged that Labour would form the next government. He also revealed that he would continue as a member of parliament himself.

In contrast, a beaming Starmer, addressing a victory rally, proclaimed: "We did it! Change begins now."

But what does the result mean? For Britain, for its Indian diaspora, and indeed for India?

The new prime minister, during his election campaign has committed himself to strengthening Britain’s strategic partnership with India.

However, he made no mention of a free trade agreement (FTA), which the Conservative government of UK and the BJP government of India had promised to deliver by October 2022 — and which has been foundering for over for two-and-a-half years since.

Labour is acutely aware that the BJP and RSS fronts in Britain, including the Overseas Friends of BJP UK, have for at least five years been working strenuously in favour of the Conservatives. It made a point of addressing Hindu voters — and while it didn’t wholly manage to persuade them across the board, it did succeed in Leicester East, which has the largest concentration of East African Hindu Gujaratis in Britain.

The constituency was held by Goan-origin Keith Vaz of Labour for 32 years, before his party replaced him in 2019. The party retained the seat then; but has lost it this time to a Conservative Hindu candidate, Shivani Raja, with Vaz this time standing as an independent and beaten down to fifth place.  

In other areas with significant numbers of Indian-origin voters, Labour has managed to hold its own — retaining Ealing Southall, for example, with its majority of British Indians, especially the Sikhs, remaining loyal to it.

Where an estimated 80 per cent of Muslim voters have in recent years been supporting Labour, this is believed to have dropped to 60 per cent this time, however, because of Labour's refusal to condemn Israel for its alleged war crimes in Gaza. One of the casualties of this swing away was a prospective minister — Jon Ashworth lost to an independent in Leicester South.

At least three ee-elected MPs of Indian extraction — Lisa Nandy, Seema Malhotra and Preet Gill — are expected to be appointed ministers in Starmer’s government, in an unprecedented representation for women in a British administration.

The new dispensation could, in fact, boast Angela Rayner as deputy prime minister, Rachel Reeves as chancellor of the exchequer and Yvette Cooper as home secretary too; and see a black foreign secretary in David Lammy.  

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The long night of the televised election result — an absorbing British tradition — began with a bang, literally the minute polling stations closed, with a declaration of an exit poll.

It projected more than 400 seats for Labour, where only 326 are needed for an absolute majority.

The forecast was remarkably correct.

Into the wee hours, a bloodbath unfolded for the Conservatives. One cabinet minister after another bit the dust.

But outgoing chancellor Jeremy Hunt and home secretary James Cleverly have saved their seats, as did former British Indian cabinet ministers Priti Patel and Suella Braverman.

When the Conservatives were returned to power on a landslide under Boris Johnson four-and-a-half years ago, the smart money was on Labour spending the next decade in the wilderness. But Johnson’s 'economy with the truth' and inattention to detail instigated an incredible disintegration.

His successor as prime minister, Liz Truss, seriously jeopardised the nation’s finances in a mere 45-day period in office. She has lost her seat.

As for Sunak, he was not ready for the task, just as much as Britain — and more so, his own party and its traditional voters — was not ready for a non-white prime minister.          

As Labour and Starmer assume the reins of power, they are confronted with a daunting task of national renewal.

The British economy has faltered ever since the UK chose to withdraw from the European Union (EU). Growth is the only answer to this problem. Britain can be brought back on track if it forges frictionless trade with the EU — which could restore the turnover it has lost — and successfully addresses the £40 billion shortfall in budgeted tax revenue.

In its relative isolation since leaving the EU, Britain’s international clout is much reduced compared to the collective strength it enjoyed as a leading member state of the Union. But it continues to be an integral part of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) military alliance.

In fact, a NATO summit in Washington next week — in a climate of continuing hostilities with Russia over Ukraine — is scheduled to be Starmer’s first major international engagement as prime minister.   

But did the Conservatives lose the election rather than Labour winning it?

Admittedly, the latter’s vote share has not increased much compared to the last time, and is indeed less than what it mustered in 2017 — under a leftist and supposedly unelectable leader in Jeremy Corbyn, who has, incidentally, won his North London seat as an independent, after being stripped of the Labour whip by Starmer.

The grim reality, though, is the rise of a militantly anti-immigration Reform party, which ate into the Conservative vote to reduce it to a shambles.

The success last month of the far-right parties of Germany and France in elections to the European Parliament — repeated in the first round of the French parliamentary polls last week — was a wake-up call for mainstream political parties in Europe that its indigenous white people are more vociferously and actively intolerant of foreigners unlawfully settling in their countries.

Is the surge towards Reform, of a piece with those European verdicts, a one-off protest vote? It will not be if western European governments come a cropper in containing illegal immigration.   

Meanwhile, the Conservative party has a history of being ruthless with individuals who lose them elections. In effect, it is unlikely that Sunak will be Leader of the Opposition for long.

Johnson fancies a comeback; but could only have realised it if he were an MP, which he is not, because he wasn’t a candidate in the elections.

Penny Mordaunt, who lost to Sunak in the leadership contest 20 months ago and was being tipped as a contender, was defeated last night in her Portsmouth constituency.

On the other hand, the ambitious Braverman, who is shrill to the extent of being on the same page as Reform, is likely to throw her hat into the ring.