Its moderate Rouhani vs hardliner Raisi in Iran

In a close contest between incumbent Hassan Rouhani and Ebrahin Raisi, Iran voted on Friday to elect its next President. While there are two more candidates in the fray, both seem all but out of the race as the contest centres between reformist Hassan Rouhani and conservative Ebrahim Raisi, the latter having the backing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The presidential race has once again turned into a tussle between moderate liberals and clergy-backed-conservatives. Hassan Rouhani, a cleric himself but a moderate, enjoys the backing of those Iranians who want a more open Iranian society and back closer ties with the West.

As opposed to Rouhani, his competitor Ebrahim Raisi enjoys the backing of the conservative clergy, especially its supreme leader Ayatollah Khameni. Raisi, himself, is a member of the conservative Guardian Council—the body that is supposed to keep Iranian politics in line with principles of the 1979 Revolution, that threw monarchy out and transformed Iran into an anti-West Islamic theocracy.

Rouhani is contesting for a second term. No incumbent Iranian president has lost election since 1981. Rouhani is the favourite of city-based liberals, who back more open society and want better relations with the West. He also enjoys strong support of a large number of Iranian women who pine for more liberty.

The outcome of the Iranian election is being keenly watched, both inside the Middle-East, as well as the West, especially in the United States. The Iranian nuclear treaty with America and, other major Western countries was one of the key campaign issues in the recently held US elections. President Donald Trump had promised to scrap the treaty, which effectively contained Tehran’s nuclear programme for 15 years.

Iran was expecting a major economic windfall after it signed the nuclear treaty with the US, as it was expected to lead to the lifting of crippling United Nations (UN)-imposed economic sanctions. Americans have yet not eased economic sanctions against Iranians, except for some major trade deals.

Rouhani, who had been the principal architect of the treaty, had promised major economic relief to Iranians, who now feel cheated as there had been no major change in daily Iranian life.

Raisi, himself a cleric like Rouhani, is taking advantage of the economic hardships that average Iranians are facing because of certain continuing American sanctions.

Raisi is pushing the conservative line of taking Iran back to the 1979 Revolution principles. It means a more closed Iranian society and a fierce confrontation with the West, especially America.

He comes from the Iranian town of Mashed, the site of a which a major pilgrim centre. Raisi has the backing of the poor rural population which looks up to clergy for doles and various kinds of subsidies.

If Raisi pips Rouhani, it will have major repercussions both inside and outside Iran. First, Iran-Saudi rivalry may flare-up impacting Middle Eastern politics in a big way. Secondly, Iran-American relations may hit rock bottom again, leading to scraping of the nuclear deal which will have its own impact on global peace.

Rouhani’s victory, on the other hand, will push Iran to a more moderate and liberal course that would be welcomed all over the world.