Is Vijay Gokhale the next Indian Foreign Secretary?

The MEA grapevine holds that Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is unlikely to get a further extension as foreign secretary of India. On a two-year contract to start with – granted to him on the verge of his retirement – he was given another year of service, which concludes towards the end of January next.

While the removal of his predecessor, Sujatha Singh, was unseemly, his appointment was arguably not unpopular. He was perceived to be one of the bright boys of the diplomatic corp and, therefore, deserving of such recognition. Rumour had it he was seriously considered for the position by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh; but the fact that Sujatha Singh had topped her batch in their entrance examination – and it would have been politically insensitive to deny a woman – clinched the issue.

Her curriculum vitae was, in fact, relatively bare, other than a year-long stint as ambassador in Germany; whereas Jaishankar had been head of mission in Singapore and China, not to mention the United States, out of which he was catapulted to South Block.

Somewhere along the way, Narendra Modi took a liking for Jaishankar. The implementation of foreign policy by this duo in the past two and a half years would suggest either they were from the beginning on the same wave length or the latter failed to resist a direction which was not in India’s national interest. Either is worrying.

Rarely, if ever has India been so bereft of friends among its neighbours. Futhermore, there’s a question mark about Russia, previously India’s all- weather friend.

It is undoubtedly a government’s prerogative to reshuffle its civil servants. Consequently, Singh’s replacement by Jaishankar was generally accepted without much murmur in the Indian Foreign Service. The fact that in the past 33 months little politics has played in the appointment of ambassadors has also gone down well with serving officers.

But where no extensions were disbursed even where it would have been propitious to do so, singling out Jaishankar for special treatment caused heart burn among affected diplomats. Jaishankar’s first contract negated the aspirations of personnel who were to retire in 2015 and 2016. His second wiped out the ambitions of those being pensioned off in 2017. There have, thus, been rumblings of discontent.

Besides, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is now said to be unhappy with Jaishankar. In their eyes, he has failed in his assignment, since relations with Hindu majority Nepal is in a shambles and Pakistan, far from being brought to heel, has run circles around the Modi government. The RSS does not approve of the embrace of the US either, as this does not blend with their Hindu chauvinism. They are loath to blame their pracharak Modi for the mess or for that matter the national security adviser Ajit Doval, a police officer licensed by Modi to run amok in the realm of external affairs.

Given the alleged grievances of the IFS and the RSS, any thoughts Modi may have entertained of retaining Jaishankar as foreign secretary may have undergone a rethink.

On the face of it, Vijay Gokhale, now ambassador in Beijing, is on his way to Delhi to take charge as secretary (economic relations) in the Ministry of External Affairs. But there could be more to this move than meets the eye. While his relocation is held up because of the current border tensions with China, his new role could be a stepping stone to succeeding Jaishankar.

In theory, Navtej Sarna, now at the helm in Washington, could be rushed back before he retires towards the end of the year. The chances are, though, he may as an exception be asked to continue, with Jaishankar being upgraded to a post of adviser in the Prime Minister’s Office. On the other hand, Sarna could call it a day as scheduled and Jaishankar could once again be accredited to the US.

It is the duty of a career diplomat, a person who is a specialist, to speak frankly and freely to political masters. Eminent Indian foreign secretaries have been of this timber. A P Venkateswaran even lost his job for being outspoken. It would be disappointing if Jaishankar was an advocate of Modi’s tilt towards the US. It would be equally so if he wasn’t and yet did not sound a note of dissent.

The embrace of the US has elicited few gains, other than access to some useful, though not cutting-edge military hardware. Washington is not going to lean on Pakistan or China on matters that are critical to India. It needs Rawalpindi to co-operate in containing the Taliban in Afghanistan; while China cannot be offended where North Korea poses a threat to the US’ close allies in East Asia. Moreover, Delhi’s tilt towards America has upset Russia, which is unprecedentedly exploring arms exports to Pakistan.

In fact, repeated requests from this writer to the ministry of foreign affairs in Moscow to spell out its position on the present Doklam stand-off between India and China, has been met with a stony silence.

As for Gokhale, a section of his current and former colleagues expect him to resist rather than pursue inadvisable initiatives. He may also benefit from the backing of the RSS, for in their narrow perspective he is the purest of the pure – a Maharashtrian Brahmin.

Obviously, at the end of the day, what should matter is mettle. If Gokhale can navigate India out of the morass in its external affairs, that will be seen as success. Will he be permitted to function with freedom? Can he countervail the pressures that would emanate from Modi and the RSS’ worldview? Time will tell.