Baku climate talks kick off amid fears of US stepping away from Paris pact

As the two-week UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) kicked off on Monday in the Azerbaijan capital of Baku with a pivotal opportunity to accelerate action to tackle the climate crisis, concerns remained over US President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to roll back on the country's carbon-cutting commitments, pulling out of the 2015 Paris climate accord.

As White House officials scramble to protect outgoing President Joe Biden’s climate plans from the incoming "orange wave", US climate envoy John Podesta said it could still land its 2035 climate target. In a second term, Trump may again exit the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement — an accord intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming to no more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.

Former UN Environment Programme executive director Erik Solheim believes the climate coalition will win, despite Trump's vow to reverse US commitments. "Trump will withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, maybe even from the UN Climate Convention. It’s, of course, ridiculous that the nation which more than any other has caused global warming, now will leave it to others to solve the mess," Solheim, who is attending the UN climate talks in Baku, wrote on X.

"US emissions up to today are eight times Chinese, 25 times Indian and the difference is even bigger if we compare with small island development states or with Africa," he wrote. "But still there is hope. I am confident we will win the struggle."

Solheim, who believes the twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss have led to a rapidly growing focus on forest conservation and restoration, says it’s China, India, and Europe which are leading on climate, not the US, even under Biden.

"China last year contributed two-thirds of all global renewable energy and produced 60 per cent of the electric cars. India is aiming at 500 gigawatt of solar, wind and hydro by 2030. The European Green New Deal brings European leadership. The world can do well without the US," he contended.

According to Solheim, who was executive director of UNEP between May 2016 and November 2018, businesses are leading the charge, not governments "No major US business saluted when Trump last time abandoned the Paris Agreement. US businesses see opportunities for profits and jobs in climate action. The efforts of the US tech industry to source green power are for instance more important than most government programmes.

“Powerful American states support climate action. California, New York and many other states will not relinquish green efforts, but probably fight Trump tooth and nail. The economy of California alone is among the 10 biggest in the world.

"The election of Trump may paradoxically create a more peaceful world. He strongly argued during his campaign that the US should focus on its own borders, not on everyone else borders. The time of the neocons of both US parties who couldn’t see a war they didn’t like, may be over? Wars in Ukraine, Middle East and elsewhere are colossal diversions from the long-time climate threat. Climate may again be more centre stage in global politics."

Noting the main issue on the table in Baku is climate finance and there’s lots of talk from rich nations about the wonders of private sector investment, but the focus needs to be on securing public finance commitments, Christian Aid’s global advocacy lead Mariana Paoli said: "Donald Trump may have won the US election but the rest of the world isn’t going to let his folly on climate change and funding from the fossil fuel industry wreck the only planet we call home.

"The US may be about to squander the positive progress it has made on clean energy and climate action over the last four years but other countries can now step up and show they won’t be making the same mistake. This is a moment to reveal who the real climate leaders are on the global stage."

In the run-up to the COP29 talks, New Jersey became the latest US state in the Under2 Coalition, joining the largest global network of states and regions as part of a global network committed to bold climate action and net zero by 2050.

Governor Phil Murphy has signed the Global Climate Leadership Memorandum of Understanding, making New Jersey the 17th US state to join the grouping. "We are not only committed to meeting our very ambitious goals, but we are also committed to creating a new generation of economic opportunities," the governor said.