Baghdadi’s death symbolic, Islamist terror threat far from over 

After the collapse of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’s (ISIS’) terror Caliphate that once spread across vast swathes of Syria and Iraq, the end of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was just a matter of time. The man, whose army of fanatic Islamist followers had terrorised nearly ten million men at the peak of the ISIS’ power, ran into a dead-end tunnel with his three children and detonated an explosive vest while US military dogs and special operations troops chased him.

But like the killing of Osama Bin Laden failed to put an end to Islamist terrorism or even al-Qaeda, there is almost zero probability that Baghdadi’s death will also spell the end of Islamist extremism. But the rise of an Islamic State as an autonomous quasi-state as it was under Baghdadi is unlikely to be replicated anytime soon in West Asia. The Syrian Arab Army, backed by Russian airpower and logistics support, and the YPG guerrilla force of the Kurds, backed by the US until a week back, had already broken the back of the dreaded ISIS, thousands of whose fighters have been taken captive by YPG and the Syrian Arab Army. That way, the killing of Baghdadi is more symbolic than anything else. It may help US President Donald Trump in his 2020 re-election campaign. The intent of the POTUS was evident from his 48-minute announcement of Baghdadi’s death.

In contrast, Barack Obama’s announcement of Osama Bin Laden’s death lasted nine minutes. ISIS may not be a threat anymore but the thousands of its trained fighters definitely are. The offensive of Turkish and Ankara-backed forces against the YPG guerrillas in Syria has left the Kurds running helter-skelter and they have said in no uncertain terms that they are in no position to hold the ISIS fighters captive anymore. This is basically a tactic YPG is trying to use against world powers to pressure Turkey to back off. But Turkey sees YPG as a branch of the separatist Kurdish PKK on their side of the border. It is unlikely that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will roll back his forces. So, what is likely in case Ankara pursues its campaign against the YPG guerrillas? Reports put the number of these captives at several thousands. These are people trained in handling arms and explosives and brainwashed with hatred-filled Salafist ideology.

If these fighters slip away and return to their mother countries, the possibility of lone-wolf terror attacks increases manifold. This is also one of the main worries of Russian President Vladimir Putin and other European heads of states. Seen in this light, the Turkish incursion into Syria is a much more significant development. Terror groups already have succession plans in place as has been seen with al-Qaeda. The famous dialogue of Lt Colonel Mathieu in Gillo Pontecorvo’s legendary film The Battle of Algiers – “You cut off the head of the snake and the snake dies” – does not apply to Islamist terror groups. While ISIS will not establish its reign of terror on a territory in the foreseeable future, Islamist terrorism is far from its end.