World can ill-afford Russia-NATO war over Ukraine when pandemic continues to put health of millions at risk

The whole world has suffered due to the humanitarian crisis that came in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The threat is not yet completely over as we are still not certain about new variants of the rapidly mutating virus. Even though vaccination has given some respite, glaring inequity in vaccination in different countries hampers the fight against COVID-19.

We need immense resources to meet the challenge from not only the pandemic but also other diseases, both communicable and non-communicable which have been largely ignored during this period. Patients with diseases like tuberculosis, dengue, malaria, diarrhoea, diabetes, cancer, chronic kidney problems etc have suffered due to changed priorities. The effect has been seen more in developing countries which are already short of resources.

This is a time when the whole world should get together and put in all efforts to conserve resources for the healthcare of the people. But even before this crisis has ended, we are on the brink of another humanitarian disaster that could happen in case of conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Such a war at this moment may not remain localised to Europe alone. It appears that the USA along with NATO countries will directly or indirectly enter into the conflict, which will lead to the involvement of other countries in the time to come. It is therefore imperative for the two countries to reach a diplomatic solution to the crisis through mutual dialogue and confidence building measures.

It may be difficult to assess the humanitarian damage in case war erupts between Russia and Ukraine, but the effects are similar in case of any war. We have experience of collateral damage caused following invasion of Iraq by the US and its allies.

In any war scenario, civilian deaths often outnumber the death of soldiers as more deaths now occur due to the indirect impact of war. In a war situation, essentials like food supply, water supply, healthcare and public health services, power generation, communication, transportation and other infrastructure are affected adversely.

In addition, there occurs displacement of population who are often forced to live in makeshift camps. This increases the risk of disease and deaths.

Studies have revealed that since 1990-2017, 50000 deaths have occurred annually as a result of armed conflicts while the indirect deaths have been more than one million.

Recently, US government officials estimated that an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine could kill 25,000 to 50,000 civilians, 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian military personnel, and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also generate 1 to 5 million refugees. Any further escalation could even lead to use of nuclear weapons which would be catastrophic.

Dr. Barry S Levy, Adjunct Professor of Public Health, Tufts University School of Medicine in a presentation at an event organized by International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW) on February 19 warned of serious consequences of conventional war.

According to him, in case of war there is increase in malnutrition, particularly among women and children. There is rise in communicable diseases like diarrhoea, cholera, respiratory diseases, tuberculosis. Mental disorders like depression, posttraumatic stress disorder and suicide increase. Reproductive health suffers badly. Non-communicable diseases like heart diseases, cancers, kidney diseases too rise.

Since Ukraine has 17% population above the age of 65, there is a danger that indirect death rate would be much higher than in case of the invasion of Iraq since this group of population is more vulnerable.

In case of Russia and Ukraine conflict, the danger of the use of nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. Such a situation would have extremely dangerous consequences and would put billions around the world at risk, warned Dr Ira Helfand, former co-president IPPNW.

Linda Pentz Gunter, founder of Beyond Nuclear, has cautioned of a catastrophe if nuclear power plants in Ukraine are damaged in the war. We have to learn from the previous incidents of nuclear power plant accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima, she says.

Knowing well all these dangers, the world is still increasing expenditure on arms. As per SIPRI, world military expenditure was $1981 billion in 2020, an increase of 2.6 per cent on 2019 in real terms.

In case the war between Russia and Ukraine spreads further, low income group countries will face a crisis.

People in both the countries yearn for conflict resolution from dialogue and lasting peace, pointed out by Olga Mironova, MD, PhD, who is working as Associate Professor of the chair of Internal Diseases in Sechenov University while speaking at the IPPNW event. Therefore, it is imperative that while on one hand urgent diplomatic efforts are made, civil society too should raise its concerns worldwide.

(IPA Service)

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