UP polls: Lucknow isn’t invincible for Samajwadi Party, suggests the voting of round four

Political scenario in Uttar Pradesh has become slightly clear as the state completes voting for phase four on Wednesday. With only 171 seats left and three more rounds to go, the ruling BJP is now left with a daunting task to sweep Purvanchal and the remaining seats of Awadh. The possibilities look dim as the current strike rate remains below par for the party that swept the last three elections in the most populous state.

“We are nearing the majority mark in the fourth round itself”, claimed Akhilesh Yadav while addressing an election rally in Bahraich as the people in 60 constituencies of 9 districts voted for a total of 624 candidates. Many BJP leaders, including the home minister Amit Shah are shouting similar rhetoric. Whom should we believe is the question. Just read the body language of the leaders from both the main contenders, i.e., the BJP and Samajwadi Party and you will at least get a hint. We haven’t seen such desperation in the BJP leaders for years. Even if they win UP, it is not as easy as they perceived it a few months before.

Three things are obvious from the first four rounds. The voter turnout on the urban polling centers remains low, there is no last hour spike in voting and the average voting is far below the benchmarks set during the 2017 assembly poll, also the 2014 and 2019 general elections. What sense does this make? The past experiences suggest, whenever the polling in UP has gone above 60 per cent most of the electorates have favored the BJP. The urban middle class, and the voters from Hindu upper castes have mostly voted for either BJP or Congress. Thirdly, the last hour spike is often denoted to the bogus voters, officials acting as political workers and the election machinery favoring a certain party.

Certainly this may be worrying the ruling BJP and these concerns can be read between the lines spoken by the party leadership. Talk to any BJP or RSS functionary. He will assure you of two things. One, the BJP will remain the single largest party and ‘Motabhai’ aka Amit Shah will manage all. But, after the fourth round of polling, this tone may change. BJP now not only needs to sweep the Purvanchal but also an escape velocity to get rid of the narratives set by the opposition.

What about the fourth round? We can say that the voters in Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur and Rae Bareli have made a clear choice. They have favoured a change. In Lucknow, the fortress of BJP since AB Vajpayee, the party is stuck in neck to neck battle. In Fatehpur, and Banda, the saffron party was banking on a vote shift from the BSP but may have failed to get the required traction. The BJP looks confident in Lakhimpur Kheri sadar, Sewta, Hargaon, Hardoi, Sidhauli, Mishrikh, Unnao, Lucknow Cantt and Lucknow East. In Sarojini Nagar, and Lucknow Central there is a close fight. In Lucknow West, Malihabad, Bakshi ka Talab, and Mohanlalganj, Samajwadi voters are claiming a big victory for their party.

We can say, a few things are going in favour of Samajwadi party. One, the party is being considered a default recipient of anti-incumbency votes by the electorate. The BSP has shown no contention for a fight. This has left its supporters among the Muslims, anti-BJP group of Brahmins, Kayastha and even some Rajputs with no choice but to vote for Samajwadi Party. Thirdly, the voters who are hardcore supporters of BJP but are devastated by the economic policies and pandemic mismanagement have decided to remain away from the polling booths. Regarding Lucknow, one more point needs to be mentioned. It is the first election when late Atal Bihari Vajpayee is neither on party posters nor in election campaigns. This means Muslims, specially the Shias of old Lucknow have had no major political figure to support the party which remains at opposite pole of ideology.

BJP is facing strong anti-incumbency in Uttar Pradesh. Not only is there a fury against the party, but also against the MLAs who didn’t perform, may be due to over-centralized policies of the party leadership. So, can we say the Samajwadi Party has won the elections after the round four itself, as its leaders are claiming?

Not yet. There are still 171 seats to grab and we all know the capabilities of ‘Motabhai’, so we are unsure. But for sure, we can say that ‘Motabhai’ is facing one of the toughest battles of his life after the humiliating defeats in Bengal and Kerala. In the fourth round itself, the BJP seems to be needing at least 45-50 seats to remain in contention for power and for sure, BJP isn’t going to win this much from this round fought on its strongest turf.