Samvat 2078 ends on weak note, as new fiscal year is set to begin

With the festival of lights, next week marks the start of Samvat 2079. The current calendar year as per the Vikram Samvat calendar wasn't all roses for the financial markets as the 30-share index Sensex fell by 0.96 per cent and the larger Nifty index dropped by 1.48 per cent.

For the first time in 7 years, Samvat 2078 ended in red though investor wealth grew by 11 lakh crore since last Diwali. This contrasts with the indices' gains of Samvat 2078, which were almost decade-high as the Sensex was up 38 per cent and Nifty moved up 40 per cent.

The Hindu Calendar says that the solar Gregorian calendar is 56.7 years behind the Vikram Samvat calendar. Hence 2022 marks Samvat 2079. It's the moment when one fiscal year ends and another begins in the world of books.

Investors and traders alike consider the Samvat customary trading hour, which begins the traditional Hindu accounting year, to be a very lucky time. History suggests that this is a calendar system that goes back to the time period called Vikrama, which can be found in an inscription from the year 842 CE.

There is also a writing that dates back to 971 and is connected to King Vikramaditya.

Samvat 2078 was a rough year for the world's financial markets. Due to quantitative tightening, the Russia-Ukraine war, rising energy prices, inflation, a strong dollar, and rising interest rates, it was one of the worst years for stock markets around the world. After the $20 trillion COVID stimulus package was spent, inflationary pressures did not go away.

Considering these issues, India’s flat returns are very good. “The numerous headwinds, such as rate hikes, the energy crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continued supply disruptions, FPI outflows, heightened inflation, etc., made Samvat 2078 a difficult and forgettable year for global equities,” an analyst said.

Market watchers added that the gains in Samvat 2078 between last Diwali and now were not as big as they could have been because of the big gains in the year before. First, the Omicron wave stopped the stock markets from having a good time. Then, there was a war between Russia and Ukraine, which made oil and metal prices go up.

Soon, the US Federal Reserve came in with a sledgehammer of rate cuts to fight the spiraling inflation. This was the last straw that put an end to the two-year bull run.

Samvat 2077 was a banner year for Indian markets, which set numerous records. In Samvat 2077, the Nifty gained over 50 per cent, passing 18,000 on October 11, 2021, and the BSE Sensex gained over 60,000 on 24 September 2021.

Compared to the benchmark, the BSE Midcap and Smallcap Index gained 75 per cent and 94 per cent, respectively.

There were many firsts for India's stock markets in the Samvat 2077 of the Hindu calendar. The 13-year period beginning with last year's Diwali trading session has resulted in the best gains for the Sensex and Nifty since the dot-com bubble.

On September 24 of 2020, the Sensex hit 60,000, and on October 11 of 2021, the Nifty reached 18,000. Outperforming the benchmark indices, the BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices rose 75 per cent, and 94 per cent, respectively.

Analysts see the upcoming Samvat 2079 to witness a gradual slowing of the rate of volatility. “A climax in the cycle of rate increases may be at hand. To shake off the sluggish mood and get back on the path of a sustained uptrend in the markets. The resumption of growth at the global level and particularly on the domestic front is required," the analyst added.