Results in poll-bound states will determine opposition unity and stance of KCR, Naveen and Jagan

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's letter to 14 opposition leaders to unite against the BJP's attacks on Constitutional norms and non-BJP state governments has created ripples and is expected to shape the contours of opposition unity against the BJP in national politics.

Mamata has been in touch with the opposition leaders over the last several months and have been seeking their support in fighting the onslaught of the BJP-RSS headed by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. BJP is projecting the battle in Bengal as a showdown between Prime Minister and the Chief Minister and for all practical purposes, Bengal has emerged as the final frontier and will decide whether the BJP juggernaut will move towards building a Hindu Rashtra in nt just Bengal, where it hopes to repeat Tripura of 2018, but in rest of India.

Mamata Banerjee's letter of March 28 has been sent to six chief ministers and eight other opposition leaders including Congress president Sonia Gandhi and CPI(ML) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya. The Congress is a partner of the Congress-Left-ISF alliance in Bengal elections, but Mamata has taken it as local compulsion and thought of the national perspective of fighting BJP unitedly. The letter starts by mentioning the latest NCT Amendment Act passed in the recent session of Parliament which makes the elected government of Delhi led by AAP Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, subservient to the centre nominated Lt. Governor. It makes elections irrelevant as policy powers remain with the LG and the CM will act like the Chief Secretary.

The Centre's action is a warning to all other non-BJP chief ministers including Jagan Reddy of Andhra Pradesh, Chandrasekhar Rao of Telangana and Naveen Patnaik of Odisha, who have kept so far a safe distance from the anti-BJP opposition but apprehend growing attacks from the BJP in future. The other important issue raised by her is the use of official agencies by the Centre in harassing opposition leaders including chief ministers, the latest being the use of ED against the Kerala Government just on the eve of assembly elections.

Way back in 1983, West Bengal chief minister Jyoti Basu had convened a meeting of non-Congress Chief Ministers to discuss centre-state relations. The document was prepared by the then state finance minister Dr. Ashok Mitra who was the first to raise this issue from both economic and political perspectives. The non-Congress chief ministers who attended included N T Rama Rao of Andhra Pradesh. The issue of federalism, rights of states and centre-state finances was also followed up by Dr. Amit Mitra, finance minister in Mamata Banerjee-led government and Thomas Isaac, finance minister of the LDF government in Kerala.

While a similar conclave of chief ministers of opposition-ruled states is likely after the results in poll-bound states come out next month, it will be impacted by the results in Bengal. In case BJP wins or comes close to winning, it will undermine Mamata's stature as the unifier of the non-BJP opposition.

Several opposition leaders like Sharad Pawar, Tejaswi Yadav, M K Stalin and Akhilesh Yadav have extended their support to Mamata. Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray and Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren are also supportive. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has supported Mamata from the beginning. The results will also be important for the Congress and have a bearing on the future leadership of the party by Rahul Gandhi.

The opposition are likely to continue fighting the BJP at two levels. At one level parties opposed to the BJP and led by the Congress will fight the ideological battle. At another level chief ministers of opposition ruled states will raise issues of federalism and fight back against the Centre. Chances are that they will be joined by the chief ministers of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

The Telangana CM is already feeling the heat of communal polarisation in his state from BJP. He might be tempted to join politically against BJP before the 2024 Lok Sabha poll. All these CMs including Naveen have been fighting both the Congress and the BJP in their respective states and they will be interested in coming closer to anti-BJP opposition if the alternative is strengthened following the assembly elections. But obviously no fence sitting CM will like to take any risk unless the non-BJP alternative is really strong and has potential to unseat BJP in the next Lok Sabha polls.

That is why, the outcome of May 2 assembly elections, is of supreme importance. It will shape the nature of opposition unity, BJP's future as well as the future role of both Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee.

IPA Service

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