Odisha: Could PM Narendra Modi contest 2019 election from Puri?

On May 25 and 26, Prime Minister Narendra Modi undertook visits to Jharkhand, Bengal and Odisha around the completion of his government’s four years in office. With the general election just a year away from now, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is making a concerted effort to grow in the eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal and Odisha.

PM Modi’s presence at the convocation at Vishwa Bharati University in Santiniketan, West Bengal––to which Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina Wajed was also invited––was more than a customary gesture. It has political significance as well.

The next day he was in Cuttack, Odisha where he thundered against the moves by Opposition parties to unite. He came down heavily on Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal government, claiming it had neglected the people of the state.

While BJP rules Jharkhand and shares power with Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, in Bengal and Odisha it is a relatively small player. Bengal and Odisha weathered the Narendra Modi storm in 2014, with BJP winning just 2 and 1 one Lok Sabha seats in these two states, respectively. On the other hand, the entrenched regional players Trinamool Congress won 34 out of 42 sets in Bengal and BJD 20 out of 21 seats in Odisha. BJD also won a massive majority of 112 out of 147 seats in the Odisha assembly, which went to polls simultaneously along with the Lok Sabha election in 2014.

Incidentally, both TMC and BJD were constituents of the NDA in the past. While Mamata Banerjee broke away after the 2004 Lok Sabha debacle, Naveen Patnaik snapped ties with the BJP after the large-scale anti-Christian riots in 2008. His party BJD emerged much stronger in subsequent assembly and Lok Sabha polls.

As BJP is in power on its own or sharing power in 21 states, it fears that the anti-incumbency factor may work against it in 2019. It is also now facing the dual wind of Opposition unity. The saffron party wants to compensate from elsewhere the loss of Lok Sabha seats it is likely to suffer in North and West India. The South is all but hopeless now after BJP failed to gain power in Karnataka. The BJP is thus focused on improving its performance in Bengal and Odisha.

Though the Trinamool and BJD are both strong players, and though the total number of seats in Bengaland Odisha is only 63, the BJP knows that these are the two states where it can exploit the vacuum created by the weakening of the major opposition parties, Congress and Left Front. In Bengal, the BJP is wooing a large number of former Left Front workers and supporters, who have not switched over to Trinamool Congress. It is also trying to break away second rung leaders from TMC and BJD.

The party has drawn a different strategy to expand its base in Odisha. Reports suggest that Modi may shift from Varanasi to Puri, another holy city. This move would help shore up BJP’s poll prospect in Odisha as it did in Uttar Pradesh in 2014. But any move from Varanasi to Puri may be considered an acceptance of the fact that the BJP is somewhat jittery after the coming together of all the Opposition parties––Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party, Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal in UP.

Looking East: BJP nervous about potential losses in Jharkhand, looks to increase Bihar tally

In neighbouring Jharkhand, the BJP is worried, not without reason, as any unity in Opposition ranks may mar its prospect in 2019. The combined Opposition comprising the Congress, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) and Left parties have thrown their weight behind the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha candidates in the Gomia and Silli bypolls on May 28. If the Congress, JVM and JMM come together for the Lok Sabha polls, BJP may be restricted to just a few urban seats.

The scenario in Bihar is somewhat different. The BJP alone won 22 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats and its allies LJP and RLSP six and three respectively. The saffron party would obviously like to improve its tally.

In that case the Janata Dal (United), in partnership with which BJP rules the state and which contested separately in 2014, will have to make sacrifices. Many in the BJP do not trust Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar. Fearing that he may switch over to the rival camp in any post-poll arrangement the BJP would not like him to emerge strong again. Thus BJP is trying to expand at the cost of JD(U), and is expected to leave the latter with barely half a dozen or so seats to contest out of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats.

Nitish knows this and has begun showing signs of feeling somewhat uncomfortable with the activities of the saffron party. He refused to comment on the achievements of four years in office of the Narendra Modi government and said on May 26 that demonetisation failed to deliver desired benefits due to the role of bankers.

As the battle-lines are being drawn, the eastern theatre would become quite crucial for the survival of the BJP; and would thus witness many more political activities and high profile visits.