Modi must win UP for BJP but his troubles will begin after March 10

I want to stick my neck out and say that despite widespread unemployment, economic difficulties in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, anti-government caste consolidation, angry farmers and all that, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath looks poised to stay as chief minister of the state after the current round of assembly elections. But the twist in my tale is that it is after his victory that troubles may begin afresh for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

If you want a deeper insight, it is this: Things may have reached a point for the BJP where Yogi is more important for Modi than Yogi for himself. UP is so crucial for the 2024 general elections that there are two levels at which Modi has to be careful. First, he has to ensure UP returns a solid electoral performance for the party. Secondly, this has to be done in a manner that has to be linked to Modi's charisma and leadership than just a derivative of state-level performance.

Let us study the BJP's catchphrase for the current round of assembly elections: "Double Engine Sarkar". With Modi and Yogi as the twin engines, it seems Modi's charisma has to rub off on Yogi's performance (rivals may say a lack of it) for the BJP to be home in the assembly elections. This is understandable because the BJP's official pitch anyway has been centred around Modi's strong leadership. But more than that perhaps is the fact that there is no taking chances.

Health and education are state subjects under the Indian constitution, but advertisements for the BJP focused on expressways and airports driven by the Union government alongside the party's long-term, now fulfilled promise, of the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya. This Centre-heavy plank leaves a state-sized hole in the political platform. As they say in the US: "Houston, we have a problem."

Officially, Yogi's no-nonsense, tough-guy approach to law and order issues is being touted as the reason why BJP should be voted in again. This "Temple Plus Tough Leader" formula does work in the urban zones and badlands of UP, but not in an even way. The farmers of Western UP, the Yadavs of south-central zones aligned to Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav, and the unemployed youths of the most backward castes form a trinity that is shaking Yogi's foundations.

If Priyanka Gandhi's bet on women as a vote bank gives renewed mileage to the Congress, or the entry of the Aam Aadmi Party into UP shows some strength, things may queer the pitch for the BJP -- though as of now, the fractured opposition is more of a help than a hindrance for the ruling party. Dalit votes are largely clueless this time and again, this will help the BJP more.

Nevertheless, how long can socio-economic issues be overwhelmed by charisma and law enforcement? That is the question blowing in the easterly winds of UP, the famous Purvayya.

Seasoned political observers, as well as local caste chieftains and opportunists, will now be looking at Yogi's victory margins -- in terms of overall seats as well as seat-wise gaps in victory. This will lead to a fresh realignment of political forces that would be visible closer to the next general elections.

UP has seen a Modi wave and a Yogi wave but waves are deceptive because they are difficult to repeat. We saw in the last Union cabinet reshuffle that this was well-recognised by BJP strategists as they weighed in caste/community-based equations that went against Modi's official spiel as a leader who goes for performance appraisals.

In sum, you cannot make the souffle rise twice from the same recipe. For Modi, this is a big headache. At this point, the BJP is largely unchallenged mainly in Gujarat, UP and Himachal Pradesh. It has to earn its victories in the backdrop of an anti-incumbency mood in most other states or lean on allies to work some magic. Keeping UP is most critical and there is a lot of hard work ahead for the BJP.

Cynics may even wonder if Modi is secretly happy because Yogi's hands are tied because that helps him look stronger if one sees the UP chief minister as a future leadership challenger. Such thoughts are as of now only fantasy or forced conjecture. But there is little doubt that the BJP is not talking of "Double Engines" in other states. That means local party machinery has to lean even more on Modi while the opposition grows stronger.

In politics, the strongman who is seen to win, wins even more...in a winner-takes-all sort of a way. If UP delivers for Modi, it increases the BJP's support base in MP and Rajasthan. Thus, UP is critical for Modi and BJP and a victory this spring is the beginning of a new challenge.

(The author is a senior journalist and commentator based in Mumbai and writes on policy, political economy and governance. Views are personal)