MCD by-poll results reflect Muslims’ anger with AAP; Congress posts a significant win

The ruling Aam Admi Party (AAP) in Delhi strongly believed that the MCD by-elections in five wards were a ‘semi-final’ before the MCD elections scheduled to be held next year. All its big guns including CM Arvind Kejriwal, Sanjay Singh, Manish Sisodia, cabinet ministers campaigned aggressively in these wards.

Four out of the five wards where elections were held had sitting AAP councilors who were elected to the Assembly. One ward, Shalimar Bagh, was earlier held by BJP.

In that sense, AAP retaining three of the four wards and wresting one from the BJP is good news for it. However, losing one ward to the Congress indicates that the grand old party is emerging a potent political force in Delhi.

The Congress, which was not counted as a political force by either the media or political pundits in these by-elections, won one ward with the highest number of votes. AAP won two of the three seats by little over two thousand votes and the third seat handsomely by seven thousand votes, but the Congress won by more than ten thousand votes.

Congress has won the Muslim-dominated Chauhan Bangar ward, despite the fact that the local MLA is from AAP and was the former Councillor of this ward. The AAP candidate Haji Ishraq alias Bhure was also former AAP MLA of the area. Congress had fielded the son of former MLA Chaudhary Mateen and AAP made this an election issue but people were evidently so angry with AAP that they did not care.

This is partly explained by AAP keeping a complete distance from Shaheen Bagh anti-CAA protests to appease the majority community. Kejriwal has been trying to project himself as even more religious than BJP by portraying himself as a Hanuman Bhakt. He also immediately cleared the Kanhaiya Kumar file and held a mysterious silence during the communal riots in north-east Delhi. The last nail in the coffin was his failure to come out in support of Tablighi Jamat when it was portrayed as a Covid ‘super spreader’.

The Muslims thus saw AAP as the B team of BJP as alleged by Congress. It was this anger which translated into the victory of Chaudhary Zubair, son of Chaudhary Mateen, so handsomely.

The two seats which both AAP and BJP have lost should sound an alarming bell for them. BJP has lost Shalimar Bagh, considered to be its stronghold.

Despite the AAP’s victory, AAP needs to be concerned at the poll result as Congress and AAP share the same vote bank. The result shows that Muslims, considered to be a core voter of AAP in Delhi, appears to be drifting away from AAP.

To understand the impact of these results, one has to keep in mind the outcome of 2013 and 2015 Assembly elections. In 2013, Muslims voted for Sheila Dikshit and because of that Congress had got 8 seats, AAP got 28 seats whereas BJP got 34 seats. In 2015 elections, Muslims voted en bloc for AAP resulting in a historic 67 seat victory for AAP, with Congress was able to win a single seat.

There are other reasons why the loss of Chauhan Bangar ward is considered as a major political change in Delhi politics. Despite winning Assembly elections by more than 60 seats, AAP has not been able to score a victory in even a single MP seat, any of the three MCDs or even win a single seat in DUSU elections. This indicates that AAP remained the party of preference for Muslims, Dalits and the poor.

The poor have voted for electricity and water subsidies and the same cheque cannot be cashed twice. Muslims are already angry and they have expressed their anger in this election. Above all, the people of Delhi still praise the work done by Sheila Dikshit.

Kejriwal has another problem now. If he tries to win back Muslims, the majority community may drift away from his party. If he maintains silence and does not do anything to woo back Muslim voters, then Congress will have an advantage, at least in Muslim dominated constituencies.

The left and liberals are also not happy with Kejriwal. This is a Catch 22 situation for AAP.

One thing is clear: by winning a seat, it is advantage Congress in Delhi.