Karnataka pre-poll survey gives Congress bigger majority

A C-Fore survey predicts increased majority of 126/224 seats for Congress in the upcoming Karnataka assembly polls, say media reports. The C-Fore survey puts BJP in second place with 70 seats, an improvement on its tally in the 2013 assembly elections, when it scored 43 seats. C-Fore gives former Prime Minister Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) party just 27 seats.

C-Fore’s predicted tally for Congress is higher than the 102/224 that TV9-Cvoter survey gave Karnataka's ruling party in January. TV9-Cvoter had given the BJP a tally of 96 seats at the time. TV9-Cvoter also predicts a lower tally for JD(S), giving it just 25 seats.

The predicted gains for Congress are being attributed to, among other reasons, the fact that Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is leading the party’s election campaign from the front, whereas Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP President Amit Shah and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath have overshadowed the party’s state leaders during the campaign thus far.

The Hindu reported that as per the C-Fore survey, Congress is way ahead in Hyderabad-Karnataka, Bengaluru and Old Mysore regions, while the BJP is putting up a tough fight in coastal and Bombay-Karnataka regions. The BJP, though, may have lost some votes in Hyderabad-Karnataka and Bombay-Karnataka regions in the past few days, given their relatively high numbers of Telugu-speaking voters. Chandrababu Naidu’s quitting the BJP-led NDA and the public fight between Naidu and Shah is expected to have an impact on these voters, with negative consequences for BJP.

The Election Commission is expected to announce polling dates for the Karnataka assembly election on March 27.