In Bengal, appearances and media hype can be deceptive: What’s hot and what’s not

With barely three months to go for the assembly election in West Bengal, the noise level has gone up. But notwithstanding the publicity blitzkrieg by the BJP to create the impression that it is on the verge of storming to power in the state, this by no means looks an absolute certainty.

What appears certain is that it will be a bitterly fought election, possibly a violent election in which political parties will be fighting for their existence and future. Will the election throw up a decisive result or will it lead to coalitions and a period of instability? Only a very brave, very committed or a very foolish observer will hazard a guess.

Look at the odds. BJP, which won only three Assembly seats in 2016, must win 148 seats in 2020 to reach the halfway mark. TMC on the other hand will have to lose more than 62 seats to lose majority in the House. BJP, which polled roughly 10% of the votes in 2016, will have to surge closer to 40% if it wants to have a shot at power. TMC, which had a 44% vote share last time will have to lose a huge chunk of it.

But in the general election in 2019, BJP had a spectacular run in the state, winning 18 seats in the Lok Sabha to TMC’s 22. BJP also polled 40% of the votes, decimating the Left and Congress in the process. It hopes to repeat the feat this year in the Assembly election.

The reason why TMC is in a flap is also because although BJP winning 148 seats in the Assembly looks like a tall order, TMC losing 62 seats or more is in the realms of probability. It stands a better chance if there is a direct contest and that is why TMC is making overtures to the Left and Congress to back it. If they fail to reach an understanding, it is difficult to predict who will gain more in three-cornered contests.

It is entirely likely though that both BJP and TMC will fall short of the majority mark. The state could then be heading for a spell of President’s Rule, a coalition or a split in the TMC; which is why TMC will have to minimize its losses to stave off a defeat or a split.

BJP is upbeat because it believes it has emerged as the principal opposition party to Mamata Banerjee in the state. It is confident that anti-TMC and anti-Mamata votes will be cast for its candidates.

Six years of planning, its resources and its growing control of the media in the state besides its growing organizational muscle will be enough for the breakthrough, it trusts.

What is working for BJP and what is not: There has always been a large, non-Bengali population in the state concentrated in Calcutta, Asansol, Durgapur, Siliguri, Raniganj, Dooars and Darjeeling. But they had little ‘say’ in the state’s politics or governance. This section and also the largely non-Bengali business class find in the BJP a more attractive alternative. They voted Left when it suited them and switched over to Trinamool when the tides turned. Sensing a saffron surge, they have now shifted their loyalty to BJP. This has added heft to the party’s resources as well as to its core base.

The RSS has worked among the adivasis of the state, in both North and South Bengal, for years and is hopeful of swinging their votes for the BJP. A large section of Bengali society have nursed a resentment against Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru for their alleged appeasement of Muslims and for the Partition. Some have also subscribed to conspiracy theories that Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose was denied his due. This section has found BJP to be more hospitable. Their carefully crafted veneer of being secular, inclusive and plural have fallen. Religious affiliation has taken precedence over ethnic or cultural affinities.

BJP has also been helped unwittingly by Mamata Banerjee, who destroyed all opposition to her in the state. Both Left and Congress supporters were forced to join her ranks. The void created by the two parties has been filled by the BJP. BJP has also used anti-incumbency and charges of corruption to reduce her legitimacy. High-handedness by party workers and leaders, who demanded cuts and commission for allowing grants, loans and subsidies, also created resentment which was tapped in by the BJP. And yet BJP is hamstrung by the absence of a chief ministerial face. Even more worryingly for it, the party may have succeeded in engineering defections from other parties, but it will find it difficult to field strong candidates in Assembly constituencies. Fielding 40 odd candidates for the Lok Sabha and nearly 300 for the Assembly is clearly not the same.

BJP has tried everything to diminish and rattle Mamata Banerjee. The Governor Jagdeep Dhankar tweets every day against the state government, unheard of in a federal polity, but claims he is merely discharging his Constitutional duty. But ‘Didi’, a street fighter, can scarcely be underestimated. She not only built her party from scratch but most neutral observers agree that in the last 10 years she did a lot more ‘work’ than the Left Front did in 36 years.

Not only did she give the city of Kolkata a cleaner look, the functioning of civic bodies were streamlined, revenue collection improved and a slew of welfare measures were initiated to help the marginalized sections. Cyclones, the lockdown, the Centre’s non-cooperation and even hostility notwithstanding, she is no pushover.

BJP’s over-dependence on leaders from outside Bengal and their palpable disconnect with Bengal and Bengali icons are also handicaps the BJP is struggling to overcome.

Only a very brave or a foolish forecaster would say at this point, as election strategist Prashant Kishor said, that BJP would struggle to go past three digits. But those who know Bengal are keeping their fingers crossed.

(Views expressed are personal)