Coronavirus is still here, new variants pose greater risk

India finds itself more concerned about the safety of its citizens from Covid one year after the pandemic broke out. The vaccination drive has been too slow to curtail the new wave of Covid. ‘Variants of concerns’ have dramatically risen to 771 and still increasing fast.

Them being capable of escaping immunity, developed naturally or induced by vaccines, is a matter of grave concern, especially in the recent spike in new cases with latest addition of 53,475 a day. India has reached its highest rate of infection in the last two weeks since the outbreak of the pandemic last year.

A simple comparison may be appropriate for better understanding of the new situation. One year before on March 24, 2020, the day when general lockdown was announced, number to deaths in the country was only 10, and cases of infection were around 500. The infection rose to about 98,000 per day on September 16, 2020, and then followed downward curve and fell to about 9000 a day on February 8, 2021. It started rising sharply again and within a very short span reaching 53,475 a day on March 24, 2021.

One of the major reasons officially mentioned for this new wave of COVID-19 was non-adherence to advisories of experts regarding covid-appropriate behaviour. The advisories were being flouted in general in the market places and large gatherings continued to be organized. Right from small social or political leaders to chief ministers and Prime Minister himself were addressing large gatherings of people flouting all norms of social distancing and wearing masks. In the meantime, total cases of infection have crossed 11.5 million with over 160 thousand deaths.

The new surge in COVID-19 cases is however concentrated in few states at present though almost all the states are registering an increase. Maharashtra reached its highest single-day spike since the outbreak of the pandemic while Delhi recorded its highest spike in over three months. The Union Ministry of Health has declared surge of new infections in Maharashtra and Punjab a matter of “grave concern”.

Worsening situations in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh have also become a matter of concern. Maharashtra, Punjab, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat together account for 77.44 per cent of new infections. Eight states have reported a higher weekly positivity rate than the national average of 4.11 per cent.

Taming the new wave of coronavirus infections in the country has become a more difficult task because of new coronavirus variants. Double mutant variants which can escape immunity have been detected in Maharashtra and Punjab. In addition to the double mutants, other strains or ‘variants of concerns’ have been found in 18 other states that included variants from UK, South Arica and Brazil.

The risks India is running on account of the double mutants, that is, single virus with two mutations come together, are very high because of very large population. It is not yet known to the scientists whether the double mutants are more infectious or less affected by vaccines. These are being checked by the scientists while suspecting those to be able to escape immunity or the power of the vaccines.

It is already known that coronavirus keeps changing as it passes from one person to another, but the majority of these mutations are inconsequential and don’t alter their behaviour. We also know that some mutations could be more infectious causing more severe disease, and can also evade vaccines.

In a statement while voicing the concern the Ministry of Health has said the Indian genome scientists have detected a so-called “double mutant” from the samples collected from western Maharashtra which showed “an increase in the fraction of samples with the E484Q and L452R mutations" compared with December last year.

"Such mutations confer immune escape and increased infectivity," the statement said further. E484Q variant is similar to the mutations found in Africa and Brazil, while L452R variant attracted attention of the world first in the US. We need further research to find more about the mutations and the actual risks associated with these mutations.

People of India must take these mutations seriously, because mutations in the spike gene generally make the virus stronger in infecting people on the one hand and helping the virus to escape neutralizing antibodies on the other. It means a person recovered from COVID-19 can be reinfected. The people who are already vaccinated can also be infected and therefore must not violate covid-appropriate behaviour advised by experts.

There is also a chance that the double mutants may use their newly gained strength to spread infection and reinfection. It would be very dangerous if happens.

Thus, our whole vaccination programme is at stake. The most vulnerable sections of our population therefore need to remain alert in avoiding infection. We all are running risk of more severe form of the infection. More data is needed to be sure to know if the double mutants would be more or less deadly and transmissible.

It is officially said that the ‘variants of concerns’ are only 20 per cent responsible for the present spike, therefore there should not be any panic. About 80 per cent of the new cases were due to other reasons including negligence of the people and governments’ faulty implementation of containment measures.

Though Union government has allowed all above 45 to get COVID vaccines from April 1 in the country, we need some more pro-active approach to allow all adults in the containment zones and their peripheries to have the jabs. It may further break the spread of infections.

Increasing vaccination speed has become all the more important. Additionally, covid-appropriate behaviours must either be followed or enforced. Lastly, India should be ready with contingency plan to handle the new wave.

(IPA Service)

Views expressed are personal