Congress-led Mahajot has an edge in 3rd phase of Assam polls

With the completion of two phases of elections covering 86 assembly seats in Assam, the attention is on the 40 seats, mostly in lower Assam, which will go to polls on the last phase on April 6.

Although much before the polls, BJP led NDA was believed to be easily winning the elections, the decision of Congress and AIUDF to form a grand alliance against NDA has made the battle more interesting. A section of political analysts is of the opinion that the Grand Alliance with arithmetic on its side is ahead of the BJP led NDA.

No doubt that the coming together of Congress and Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF makes the fight tough for BJP — as the large chunk of the Muslims, who account for 34 per cent of the state population, are likely to vote for the Grand Alliance.

However, in strongly Assamese-dominated Upper Assam, which voted in the first phase, the Grand Alliance is unlikely to take away all the anti-BJP votes — due to Congress’s decision to ally with AIUDF and the presence of another alliance comprising the regional partners AJP and Raijor Dal.

Having said that, the AJP-Raijor Dal alliance is likely to eat a chunk of NDA votes, particularly the votes of AGP, the state’s oldest existing regional party. As BJP grew at the expense of AGP in the state, this regional alliance is also expected to cut into a section of the saffron party’s votes too.

Most of the political analysts favouring the Grand Alliance are focused on the anti-CAA factor, which they believe is likely to cause harm to the prospects of BJP in Upper Assam and in the constituencies of other regions where Assamese and indigenous voters are crucial or have a say in determining the result. The fact that gets ignored is that BJP through a mix of Hindutva, Assamese regionalism, development, welfare schemes and peace has been quite able to reduce the anti-CAA anger against itself.

True that the anti-CAA anger is present among the Assamese population but to what extent it will damage BJP’s fortunes is to be seen. The anti-CAA votes are likely to be divided between Congress and the AJP-Raijor Dal alliance — and the NDA too is going to lose a section of its votes due to anti-CAA anger.

It has to be mentioned that BJP led NDA won decisively in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, despite the anger against the saffron party for bringing the CAB, which is now CAA.

The inauguration of Bogibeel Bridge and Dhola Sadiya Bridge by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has strengthened BJP’s pro-development image. For the public, it is the Modi-led BJP government that is responsible for increasing the pace of work of these bridges and other pending works like the completion of the long-pending broad-gauge rail connectivity in Barak Valley, one of the most underdeveloped regions of the state.

The Barak Valley accounting for 15 assembly seats voted on the second phase — and the saffron party is hoping to win a majority of seats from this region riding on development plus the CAA factor, as the Bengali Hindus are strong supporters of CAA in the region. In 2019, BJP wrested the two Lok Sabha seats — Silchar and Karimganj — of this region from Congress and AIUDF.

In the five seats of hill districts, which also voted in the second phase, BJP is a strong contender given the efforts of the saffron party to reach out to the tribals through its welfare schemes, distribution of land pattas and through RSS, which has been engaging with the tribals of the state. Also to accommodate the tribals of Upper Assam and other regions, BJP has accommodated small indigenous groups like Misings, Rabhas, Sonowal-Kacharis etc into the party.

Tribals account for 12.4% of the state’s population.

In the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR), which accounts for 12 assembly seats, Grand Alliance is hopeful due to joining of BPF. Most of the districts of the BTR region come under lower Assam. Significantly, the AJP-Raijor Dal alliance has also put Muslim candidates in many constituencies of lower Assam. This may cause some damage to the Grand Alliance.

The Congress-led alliance has vastly improved its campaign in this poll. But it is equally true that the BJP led NDA is on a strong wicket in the state riding on its agenda of development and Assamese regionalism mixed with layers of Hindutva and nationalism.

(IPA Service)

Views expressed are personal