BJP campaign in Bengal losing steam as ground realities catch up with it

Suddenly the mood of voters in West Bengal which is going to the eight phase polls for the state assembly beginning March 27 seems to have shifted. BJP which entered the battle brimming with confidence and armed with massive financial resources, the organisational muscle of RSS and unprecedented personal involvement of the Prime Minister and the Home Minister in this Mahabharata, finds itself in a bind.

BJP's script is not moving as desired. The enthusiasm among its cadres, especially the younger ones, has decidedly come down in the last few days and leaders themselves seem at a loss to find out what is missing. Meetings organised by the BJP are failing to attract crowds compared to what was the scene two weeks back. Even those who are present, are not responding. In Home Minister’s meeting on Monday in Bankura, he asked the audience to repeat slogans after him, but the response was lukewarm. The sulking Home Minister left the meeting grumbling. His other meeting at Jhargram had to be cancelled in the morning as he received reports of very poor attendance.

What has happened in the last two weeks that has turned the mood and momentum of the campaign? Indications suggest this has nothing to do with the organisational strength of the Trinamool Congress in meeting the challenge of the BJP campaign. The mood-shift is attributed to change in the perception of floating voters who had voted for the BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections. Also, there is a definite shift in a section of the Congress and Left voters who preferred BJP against Trinamool Congress in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

In 2019 elections, the Congress received 5.67 per cent votes showing a dip of 4.09 per cent compared to 2016 assembly elections. Similarly the CPI(M) led Left Front got only 6.33 per cent votes in 2019 recording a dip of 16.66 per cent. This was unusual and all signs indicate that there can be a return of 7 to 8 per cent of the Left voters back to the Left-Congress-ISF alliance in 2021 elections. But this will not help the alliance in a large number of seats. It will be helpful in seats where the alliance is already with a fighting chance. This shift of the Congress and Left vote is expected to help Trinamool candidates in many marginal seats.

Both Trinamool and the BJP have a minimum support base across the state now. Only in a few seats, both the parties are in a position to win on the basis of their own organisational strength. Otherwise, in most cases, results depend on the switch in the last moment of the floating voters who decide on local and other issues. In the 2019 general elections, BJP benefitted from a huge shift of floating voters ranging from 15 to 20 per cent. They mostly belonged to the CPI(M) and the Congress, now even if half of them return to the alliance, BJP will be in trouble.

Two recent developments which have also gone against the BJP. The campaign of farmer leaders like Rakesh Tikait in Bengal in the last few days has made a dent in BJP's and the PM's image. Tikait candidly called upon farmers to vote against the BJP.

Muslims comprise 27 per cent of the voters in Bengal. A big shift to ISF of Abbas Siddiqui is sure to go against Trinamool, but field reports show that is not happening. There will be some shift from Trinamool but that will be miniscule and there will be broad consolidation of minority voters behind the Chief Minister. Similarly, the women empowerment will go against BJP in Bengal elections. The schemes introduced by CM have given immense benefit to women, especially the health scheme. The women are the head and this made huge impact. The BJP will find it difficult to ignore them just talking about corruption.

With the date of polling coming closer, BJP leadership is faced with hard realities on the ground. Its performance will depend on how the party tackles them. Just money power and muscle power may not be able to achieve success. (IPA Service)