After three rounds in UP, it’s still an advantage Samajwadi Party alliance

How the Samajwadi Party performed in the Yadav heartland of Etawah, Mainpuri, and Firozabad is the only query that comes to mind as Uttar Pradesh completes voting for the third phase. After a day that saw a tough battle on the ground, it can be said, “better than 2017 assembly elections and far better then the 2014, and 2019 Lok Sabha polls.”

Karhal, Mainpuri, Jaswantnagar, all saw huge voter turnout despite EVM glitches, mismanagement by officials and obstructions by the local administrations. For the ruling BJP consolation is a better show or unity by the cadres during the third phase, which they missed during the first two.

Also, BJP can find solace in the news of split among the Muslim electorates on many seats like Firozabad, Farrukhabad, Qaimganj, Kidwainagar and Sisamau. But this isn’t enough to save the fort. Third phase may not be like the first two, still there are signs that the Samajwadi Party alliance has been successful in breaking the shackles of the past.

Third phase of UP polls covered a part of West UP, parts of Bundelkhand, Central UP and most importantly the region known as the Yadav heartland. In Bundelkhand, the Samajwadi Party alliance has put up a strong fight. Of 59 assembly seats spread over the 16 districts, 627 candidates are in fray.

Of these, Bundelkhand was being perceived as a BJP stronghold. All eyes were on the central UP, where split in Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family, particularly the sidelining of Shivpal Yadav had seen the party fortunes dwindling election after election.

In Jhansi, Lalitpur, Hamirpur and Mahoba, and Kanpur Dehat BJP seems to have kept its hold on the electorate, despite a strong fight by the Samajwadi Party and Congress in some regions. In Kannauj, Etah, Etawah, Mainpuri, and Firozabad its advantage for the Samajwadi Party this time. In Kanpur Dehat, Kanpur, Farrukhabad, Kasganj, Hathras and Auraiya it was a neck-to-neck fight.

In some quarters, BSP has also performed well. Compared to its show during the first and the second phase and so did Congress. It is not a wave, this time as Samajwadi Party may have earlier thought, but the party can still come out with a decent number of seats.

BJP is eyeing to manage the damages of the first two phases, capitalizing on the Upper Caste, plus the Nishad, Pal, and some other OBC voters. The party may have performed well in this phase, but it seems, it's not enough to fill the huge gap of the first two rounds. Party machinery seems to have woken up and they were seen mobilizing their voters.

In Auraiya, party workers clashed with the agent of a Samajwadi Party candidate. In Kidwai Nagar restrictions were imposed by the officials on BJP candidate Mahesh Trivedi for travelling with a convoy of 10 vehicles. In Chhibramau BJP candidate Archana Pandey was accused of entering the booth and abusing SP polling agents. But all these efforts failed to generate enthusiasm among the urban voters.

Samajwadi Party may suffer on many seats not only because of the malfunctioning of the machines it complained about during the day, but also because of discontent due to the ticket distribution. Though, the party in its show of unity by posing Ramgopal Yadav and Shivpal Yadav together in a polling booth tried to set a narrative.

The Shivpal factor was important for the party, and he seems to stand by his family this time. He not only claimed a huge victory for Samajwadi alliance in the Yadav heartland but also claimed, SP Singh Baghel will lose his deposit against Akhilesh Yadav in Karhal. Despite this, Hariom Yadav, another relative of Mulayam Singh seems to have troubled the party in Firozabad.

To sum up the day, it can be said that in Sadabad, Jaswantnagar, Etawah, Jasrana, Etah, Karhal, Mainpuri, Sikandra, Jalesar, Tundala, Bharthana, Kishni, Bhogaon, Sirsaganj, Kannauj, Qaimganj, Sisamau, the Samajwadi Party alliance has an upper hand.

In Kasganj, Orai, Bhognipur, Chhibramau, Akbarpur Raniya, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Bhojpur, Tirwa, Hamirpur, BJP has defended strongly, while in Farrukhabad, Firozabad, Garautha, Marhara, Patiyali, Qaimganj, Kanpur Cantt, Kidwainagar, Aryanagar, and Rasoolabad it is a tough fight between SP and BJP. In Rath and Kalpi, Congress candidates seems to have put a strong show.

Anyway, after round three it is still an advantage for the Samajwadi Party alliance. BJP seems to be trailing with a margin that is still manageable. But if the Samajwadi alliance continues a similar streak in round four and five then it will surely be the ‘end of game’ for the ruling alliance.