Future of Paris pact on climate change now shaky: Ramesh on Trump win

Congress MP and former Union environment minister Jairam Ramesh on Wednesday said Donald Trump's comeback has made the future of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change which America had rejoined under President Joe Biden "extremely shaky", and added that if the US were to withdraw again, it would be disastrous.

Incoming President Donald Trump won a second term as US president in one of the greatest political comebacks in American history, cruising past his Democrat rival Kamala Harris in a bitterly fought election.

The Congress general-secretary (communications) said Trump has staged an astonishing comeback. "Undoubtedly, why and how it happened will be analysed in great detail over the next few weeks, as will the question of what this comeback means for the US and the rest of the world," Ramesh said.

"But what is certain is that the future of the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change which America had rejoined under President Joe Biden is now extremely shaky. If the US were to withdraw again it would be disastrous," the former environment minister said.

International policy experts seemed to echo his view, saying Trump's re-election as president is a profound blow to global climate justice and his disregard for international agreements and refusal to provide climate finance will deepen the crisis.

Sunita Narain, director-general of the Delhi-based thinktank Centre for Science and Environment, said Trump winning the White House race is a "big setback" for global climate efforts, especially if he rolls back critical domestic policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

She said the US has historically fallen short in global climate efforts, particularly on financing support for vulnerable countries, decarbonisation and financial commitments to the developing world, and Trump's presidency will make matters even worse.

"While President Joe Biden's administration showed stronger climate action domestically than internationally, our primary concern now is that Trump may roll back these critical domestic efforts, including the IRA," she said.

"The IRA is crucial because the United States remains the single-largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-largest emitter annually. It is also the world's top producer and exporter of oil and gas, generating around 13 million barrels daily. The IRA (and its role in achieving 50 per cent emissions reduction by 2030, below 2005 levels) served as a significant signal to the world that the US could lead on climate action," Narain said.

In his campaign, Trump emphasised his support for increasing oil and gas production, with 'drill, baby, drill' as a key slogan. He dismissed climate change concerns entirely. Rolling back the IRA and expanding oil production would be extremely harmful for international climate efforts, the climate policy expert said.

Trump, who has publicly called climate change a "hoax", withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement when he was president. He has said he would pull out of the Paris Agreement again. There are concerns that Trump would also consider withdrawing the US from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Harjeet Singh, climate activist and Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said Trump's victory is a profound blow to global climate justice and an alarming escalation of climate risk for the world's most vulnerable communities.

Trump's push to ramp up fossil-fuel production, disregard for international agreements and refusal to provide climate finance will deepen the crisis, endangering lives and livelihoods, especially in regions least responsible for, yet most impacted by, climate change, he said.

"With COP29 talks starting in Baku next week and aiming to secure an ambitious new climate finance goal, this news makes the already challenging path to consensus even steeper and more uncertain. As the narrow window to prevent catastrophic climate breakdown closes, the world cannot afford for its largest historical carbon emitter and top fossil-fuel producer to shirk its responsibility. By stepping back from climate commitments, Trump's actions threaten to erode trust in a global system already strained by the indifference and inaction of wealthy nations.

"The US, as a nation, has an urgent duty to lead — not undermine — global efforts. It is time for states, the public and companies committed to protecting the planet to intensify their domestic actions and show true solidarity with the developing world, which is confronting the climate crisis," Singh said.

Helen Clarkson, CEO of international non-profit Climate Group, said fighting climate change, financing the transition and taking action to reduce emissions have just become a "vastly bigger challenge, which will be felt at COP29 and in the years to come".

This outcome in the US, just after two devastating hurricanes impacted the southern parts of the country, is in line with a trend of climate scepticism throughout the past election year, she said. "We cannot let that deter us. It means we have to look for leadership elsewhere. Corporates and states and regions, including in the US, are already leading the way on climate action," Clarkson said.

With PTI inputs