Economic Survey keeps current fiscal growth at 6.75%, warns about feminisation of agriculture

India's Economic Survey for 2017-18 has pegged the country's growth at 6.75 per cent for the current fiscal and 7 to 7.5 per cent for 2018-19.

"A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal and will rise to 7.0 to 7.5 percent in 2018-19, thereby re-instating India as the world's fastest growing major economy," the Survey said here on Monday.

The Survey however pointed out that farmers are the first major victim of climate change and climate change could lead to a 15-18 per cent decrease in farmers’ income in one season. In areas where means of irrigation are less, this loss could be 20-25 per cent. It points out that growing rural-to-urban migration by men is causing ‘feminisation’ of agriculture sector with increasing number of women in multiple roles as cultivators, entrepreneurs, and labourers.

Swaraj India leader Yogendra Yadav pointed out in his tweet that the government itself has admitted that farmers’ income has not increased at all:

The Survey, tabled in parliament by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Monday, also said the reform measures undertaken in 2017-18 can be strengthened further in 2018-19.

The Survey underlined that the economy began to accelerate in the second half of the year and can clock 6.75 per cent growth this fiscal due to the launch of transformational Goods and Services Tax reform on July 1, 2017 and resolution of the long-festering Twin Balance Sheet problem by sending the major stressed companies for resolution under the new Indian Bankruptcy Code.

It also said implementing a major recapitalisation package to strengthen the public sector banks, further liberalisation of foreign direct investment and the export uplift from the global recovery had played a major role in boosting the growth.

The Survey, however, pointed out that as per the quarterly estimates there was a reversal of the declining trend of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2017-18, led by the industry sector.

It said that India can be rated as among the best performing economies in the world as the average growth during last three years is around 4 percentage points higher than global growth and nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of emerging market and developing economies.

People’s response on social media to the Economic Survey has been mixed. Doubts about the positive trends in Indian economy were also raised by many:

The survey has of course cautioned that some of the factors could have dampening effect on GDP growth in the coming year are like the possibility of an increase in crude oil prices in the international market.